Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg v Hannover 96

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 16:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 Hannover 96

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 36.16%2.77fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.63%36.18%36.15%37.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.552.6541.67%39.36%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hannover 96 (Visit)

Prediction 38.40%2.60fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.31%38.45%38.37%40.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.5145.45%41.80%41.67%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.44%3.93fair odd
EV -0.769%
Edge -0.197%
Kelly -0.265%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.87%25.37%25.48%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.653.9029.41%27.52%27.43%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 36.16%; Hannover 96 (Visit): 38.40%; Draw: 25.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -0.769%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.89%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.01%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 09:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.89%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.01%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 09:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.67%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.43%EV -5.55%E -2.25%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 08:44
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 18:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 08:44
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -2.04%E -0.530%K -0.716%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 01:00
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.24%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -8.62%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 19:40
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:35
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 02:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:32
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 16:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.99%EV -6.71%E -2.60%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -3.63%E -1.44%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.98%EV -2.80%E -0.734%K -0.994%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 08:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.44%EV -7.07%E -2.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.80%EV -10.18%E -2.88%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:41
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -5.16%E -2.09%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -7.38%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -5.16%E -2.09%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -7.38%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:25
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 19:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 19:30
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 08:44
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -9.67%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 08:42
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 08:44
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 08:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -15.53%E -7.06%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 16:35
Suprabets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.47%EV -8.15%E -3.21%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.43%EV -7.47%E -3.10%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.10%EV -6.11%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 21:55
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:30
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.62%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 19:29
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 15:50
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:05
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 19:40
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.13%EV -8.62%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -9.67%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 01:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 08:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 09:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 11:54
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 11:54
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 11:54
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.18%EV -10.32%E -4.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.18%EV -10.32%E -4.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 01:34
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:04
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 08:44
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.32%EV -13.61%E -6.05%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.34%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -10.92%E -4.71%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 01:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.34%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -10.92%E -4.71%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 01:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.34%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -10.92%E -4.71%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 01:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.37%EV -13.22%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.49%E -3.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-09 10:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-09-09 16:56
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.06%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.47%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%3.4%2026-09-09 17:40