Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Nürnberg v Hannover 96

Inicio: 2026-09-11 16:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 Hannover 96

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Predicción 36.16%2.77momio equitativo
EV -4.18%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -2.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.63%36.18%36.15%37.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.542.552.6541.67%39.36%39.22%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hannover 96 (Visitante)

Predicción 38.40%2.60momio equitativo
EV -3.63%
Ventaja -1.44%
Kelly -2.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.31%38.45%38.37%40.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.392.402.5145.45%41.80%41.67%39.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.44%3.93momio equitativo
EV -0.769%
Ventaja -0.197%
Kelly -0.265%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.87%25.37%25.48%26.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.633.653.9029.41%27.52%27.43%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 36.16%; Hannover 96 (Visitante): 38.40%; Empate: 25.44%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.93. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.90, con un valor esperado de -0.769%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.89%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.01%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 09:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.89%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.01%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 09:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.67%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.43%EV -5.55%E -2.25%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 08:44
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 18:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 08:44
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -2.04%E -0.530%K -0.716%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 01:00
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.24%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -8.62%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 19:40
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:35
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 02:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:32
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:34
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 16:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.99%EV -6.71%E -2.60%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -3.63%E -1.44%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.98%EV -2.80%E -0.734%K -0.994%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 08:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.44%EV -7.07%E -2.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.80%EV -10.18%E -2.88%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:41
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -5.16%E -2.09%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -7.38%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -5.16%E -2.09%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -7.38%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:25
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 19:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 19:30
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 08:44
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -9.67%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 08:42
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 08:44
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 08:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -7.79%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -15.53%E -7.06%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 16:35
Suprabets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.47%EV -8.15%E -3.21%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.43%EV -7.47%E -3.10%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.10%EV -6.11%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 21:55
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:30
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.62%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 19:29
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 15:50
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:05
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -5.93%E -2.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 09:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 19:40
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.13%EV -8.62%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -9.67%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 01:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 08:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 09:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 11:54
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 11:54
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 11:54
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.18%EV -10.32%E -4.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.18%EV -10.32%E -4.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.18%EV -9.77%E -4.16%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 01:34
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:04
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -7.85%E -3.27%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 08:44
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.32%EV -13.61%E -6.05%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.34%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -10.92%E -4.71%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 01:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.34%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -10.92%E -4.71%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 01:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.34%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.06%EV -10.92%E -4.71%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.54%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 01:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.37%EV -13.22%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -11.69%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.49%E -3.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-09 10:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-09-09 17:25
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-09-09 16:56
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.06%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.47%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%3.4%2026-09-09 17:40