Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Nürnberg v Hannover 96

2026-09-11 16:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Predicción 35.50%2.82momio equitativo
EV -3.08%
Ventaja -1.13%
Kelly -1.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.11%35.65%35.57%37.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.532.522.7342.55%39.52%39.60%36.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hannover 96 (Visitante)

Predicción 38.55%2.59momio equitativo
EV +1.37%
Ventaja +0.523%
Kelly +0.843%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.56%38.42%38.46%39.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.432.402.6345.45%41.19%41.67%38.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.95%3.85momio equitativo
EV -1.38%
Ventaja -0.363%
Kelly -0.492%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.55%25.94%25.97%27.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.523.553.8030.30%28.41%28.17%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 35.50%; Hannover 96 (Visitante): 38.55%; Empate: 25.95%. Para Hannover 96 (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.59. 8 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.63, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.37%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:04
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.96%E -4.82%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV +1.37%E +0.523%K +0.843%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -14.80%E -6.16%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -1.71%E -0.670%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-05 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -15.51%E -6.52%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -15.51%E -6.52%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-05 23:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.75%EV -16.57%E -7.05%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.77%EV -4.41%E -1.78%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.75%EV -16.57%E -7.05%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.77%EV -4.41%E -1.78%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-05 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.75%EV -16.57%E -7.05%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.77%EV -4.41%E -1.78%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-05 23:04
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -5.92%E -2.23%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.68%E -0.714%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-05 23:05
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.56%E -2.27%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.97%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:04
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.93%EV -3.08%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.08%EV -5.95%E -2.44%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.98%EV -4.75%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:05
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.15%E -1.54%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:04
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -1.38%E -0.363%K -0.492%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -1.38%E -0.363%K -0.492%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -1.38%E -0.363%K -0.492%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -3.97%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -3.97%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Suprabets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.60%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.70%EV -9.94%E -2.87%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.92%E -2.23%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.49%E -3.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-05 23:04
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 00:23
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 00:24
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -5.92%E -2.23%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -5.92%E -2.23%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-05 23:03
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -8.26%E -3.47%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -8.65%E -3.65%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -8.65%E -3.65%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.97%EV -9.42%E -4.01%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -7.87%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-05 23:03
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -5.92%E -2.23%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -9.42%E -4.01%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 02:10
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -7.70%E -2.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -9.42%E -4.01%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.35%E -4.93%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -6.57%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -13.27%E -5.90%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.07%EV -14.80%E -6.16%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -13.27%E -5.90%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-05 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.35%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.27%EV -14.04%E -6.30%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.38%EV -13.84%E -4.17%K -5.96%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-05 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.81%EV -11.25%E -4.50%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.21%EV -14.43%E -6.50%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.98%EV -13.06%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -9.47%E -3.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -15.20%E -6.91%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -14.36%E -4.35%K -6.24%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -13.02%E -5.31%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%EV -15.20%E -6.91%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -14.36%E -4.35%K -6.24%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-05 23:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 34.55%2.24I 44.64%NM 38.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.20%16.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 31.52%1.48I 67.57%NM 35.57%1.60I 62.50%NM 32.90%89.9%2026-09-05 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.67I 59.88%NM 31.52%1.48I 67.57%NM 35.57%1.60I 62.50%NM 32.90%89.9%2026-09-05 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 31.52%1.48I 67.57%NM 35.57%1.60I 62.50%NM 32.90%89.9%2026-09-05 23:35