Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden

2026-08-09 11:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 51.37%1.95fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +5.05%
Growth +0.268%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.03%50.89%51.35%52.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.802.0561.73%56.17%55.56%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 23.66%4.23fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -0.971%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%24.13%23.66%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.793.804.1029.41%26.39%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.97%4.00fair odd
EV -0.104%
Edge -0.026%
Kelly -0.035%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%24.98%24.98%26.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.604.0029.85%27.68%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV +5.31%E +2.59%K +5.05%G +0.268%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -19.57%E -5.76%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 20:29
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -4.97%E -2.68%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.92%E -2.32%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -0.104%E -0.026%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 08:04
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -4.97%E -2.68%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 07:40
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.37%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:40
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.74%EV -7.02%E -3.88%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.95%EV -3.48%E -0.853%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-28 04:20
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 07:39
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.74%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.10%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 07:38
Codere (IT)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.56%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 10:40
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.56%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 12:15
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.56%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 12:14
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.53%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.47%E -3.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Marathon Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.07%EV -8.05%E -4.50%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -3.01%E -0.734%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-28 04:20
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -8.56%E -4.81%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.11%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-13 12:14
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 51.73%EV -9.08%E -5.13%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -6.56%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -8.84%E -2.42%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 14:40
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.10%E -5.77%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -10.11%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.10%E -5.77%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -10.11%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.10%E -5.77%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -10.11%E -2.66%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -11.34%E -3.19%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-21 07:40
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 49.92%EV -11.13%E -6.43%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -17.20%E -4.92%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -15.09%E -4.44%K -6.29%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-21 07:40
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.14%EV -11.64%E -6.77%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -14.84%E -4.12%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-27 16:50
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 50.90%EV -12.67%E -7.45%K -18.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.38%EV -16.02%E -4.51%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-27 16:50
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.28%EV -13.70%E -8.15%K -20.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.60%EV -13.65%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.12%EV -14.34%E -4.18%K -5.90%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-25 11:34
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.94%EV -14.73%E -8.87%K -22.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.82%EV -16.02%E -4.51%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.24%EV -16.34%E -4.88%K -6.95%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-25 11:35
NetBet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 51.88%EV -16.78%E -10.36%K -27.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.03%EV -13.65%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.09%EV -16.34%E -4.88%K -6.95%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-28 05:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 50.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.63%16.5%2026-07-13 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 22.50%1.07I 93.46%NM 39.11%1.09I 91.74%NM 38.39%139.0%2026-07-21 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 22.50%1.07I 93.46%NM 39.11%1.09I 91.74%NM 38.39%139.0%2026-07-21 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.11%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.81%1.03I 97.09%NM 34.08%184.9%2026-07-13 12:15
Arbitrage (19 combinations) +1.86%Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.7%) / Marathon Bet 4.10 (24.8%) / Coolbet 4.00 (25.5%)Show all 19 combinations
1. FC Nürnberg (Local)Dynamo Dresden (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.7%)Marathon Bet 4.10 (24.8%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.5%)+1.86%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.6%)1xBet 4.08 (24.9%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.4%)+1.74%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.4%)BetMGM 4.00 (25.3%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.3%)+1.23%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.4%)Fanatics 4.00 (25.3%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.3%)+1.23%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.2%)Codere (IT) 3.95 (25.5%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.2%)+0.911%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.2%)Betsson 3.95 (25.5%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.2%)+0.911%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.2%)NordicBet 3.95 (25.5%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.2%)+0.911%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.2%)Bovada 3.95 (25.5%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.2%)+0.911%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.1%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.8%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.1%)+0.582%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.1%)FanDuel 3.90 (25.8%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.1%)+0.582%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)Marathon Bet 4.10 (24.5%)BetMGM 3.80 (26.5%)+0.516%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)Marathon Bet 4.10 (24.5%)Fanatics 3.80 (26.5%)+0.516%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)Marathon Bet 4.10 (24.5%)SportsBet 3.80 (26.5%)+0.516%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)Marathon Bet 4.10 (24.5%)FanDuel 3.80 (26.5%)+0.516%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)1xBet 4.08 (24.6%)BetMGM 3.80 (26.4%)+0.395%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)1xBet 4.08 (24.6%)Fanatics 3.80 (26.4%)+0.395%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)1xBet 4.08 (24.6%)SportsBet 3.80 (26.4%)+0.395%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (49.0%)1xBet 4.08 (24.6%)FanDuel 3.80 (26.4%)+0.395%
Tipico (DE) 2.05 (48.9%)Coolbet 3.85 (26.0%)Coolbet 4.00 (25.1%)+0.246%