Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 11:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 3–0 Dynamo Dresden

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 38.18%2.62fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%38.34%38.00%39.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.392.382.5646.08%41.84%42.02%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 34.16%2.93fair odd
EV -0.935%
Edge -0.322%
Kelly -0.492%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.01%34.12%34.22%35.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.712.9039.22%36.82%36.97%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.66%3.62fair odd
EV -0.422%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.162%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.55%27.78%29.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.333.6032.26%29.87%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 38.18%; Dynamo Dresden (Visit): 34.16%; Draw: 27.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.422%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.48%EV -2.26%E -0.883%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.63%EV -5.38%E -1.94%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.89%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 11:25
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -3.79%E -1.50%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.01%EV -1.62%E -0.562%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:24
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.55%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.55%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:25
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -4.55%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 11:23
Codere (IT)🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -4.93%E -1.98%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Suprabets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -5.32%E -2.14%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.49%EV -7.43%E -2.74%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.82%EV -7.06%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.74%EV -5.70%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -7.06%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.90%EV -5.70%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.79%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.31%EV -10.93%E -3.40%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 11:23
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -0.935%E -0.322%K -0.492%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -1.81%E -0.509%K -0.708%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -0.935%E -0.322%K -0.492%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -1.81%E -0.509%K -0.708%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 11:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 11:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 11:05
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:20
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 11:20
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.49%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 11:23
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.83%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.08%EV -7.08%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:25
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.83%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.08%EV -7.08%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:25
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 11:14
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.422%E -0.117%K -0.162%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:24
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.40%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -2.64%E -0.927%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -4.57%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 11:10
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 11:10
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.37%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.57%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:00
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.37%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.57%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:00
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.37%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.57%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.37%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.57%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.37%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -4.57%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:00
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.95%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 11:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -10.16%E -3.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 10:55
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -10.16%E -3.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -10.16%E -3.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 11:20
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -10.16%E -3.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.25%E -4.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -9.52%E -4.01%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-09 11:00
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -9.52%E -4.01%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-09 11:00
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -10.28%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -10.28%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -10.28%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -10.28%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 11:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -10.28%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -3.19%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 11:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.97%EV -10.28%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -12.89%E -5.06%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 11:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.72%EV -11.42%E -4.92%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.05%EV -12.21%E -4.75%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -14.25%E -4.60%K -6.79%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 11:15
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:10
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.72%E -2.64%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 11:00
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.60%EV -12.95%E -5.68%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -7.77%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.95%EV -7.34%E -2.19%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -14.10%E -6.27%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -9.48%E -3.58%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -14.10%E -6.27%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -9.48%E -3.58%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -14.10%E -6.27%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -9.48%E -3.58%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -10.10%E -3.11%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 11:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 39.54%EV -17.15%E -7.90%K -14.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.65%EV -12.89%E -5.06%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.81%EV -11.49%E -3.59%K -5.22%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-09 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.82%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.65%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.53%0.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.82%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.65%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.53%0.9%2026-08-09 11:25
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-09 11:25
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.65%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-09 11:05

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.