L’École des cotes

1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden

2026-08-09 11:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (8 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prévision 51.25%1.95cote équitable
EV -0.054%
Avantage -0.028%
Kelly -0.057%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.34%50.96%51.27%51.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.631.781.801.9561.35%56.18%55.56%51.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Dynamo Dresden (Visiteur)

Prévision 23.70%4.22cote équitable
EV -5.19%
Avantage -1.30%
Kelly -1.73%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.43%24.09%23.74%26.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.783.804.0029.41%26.49%26.32%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.04%3.99cote équitable
EV +0.168%
Avantage +0.042%
Kelly +0.056%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.80%24.95%24.99%25.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.613.604.0030.30%27.73%27.78%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -5.18%E -2.80%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.74%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV +0.168%E +0.042%K +0.056%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 08:04
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -5.18%E -2.80%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -5.19%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 07:40
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.56%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 07:39
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.56%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 07:38
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -8.77%E -4.93%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.93%E -2.61%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-13 05:34
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -0.054%E -0.028%K -0.057%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -14.67%E -4.07%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 13:35
Codere (IT)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.37%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 10:40
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.37%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 12:15
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -6.37%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.34%E -1.98%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 12:14
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -7.56%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -8.60%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 21:14
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.62%EV -5.18%E -2.80%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.65%EV -6.13%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.73%EV -8.85%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 01:05
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.95%EV -6.20%E -3.39%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -5.66%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -8.85%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 01:00
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -8.77%E -4.93%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -9.93%E -2.61%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-13 12:14
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.30%E -5.89%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.93%E -2.61%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.30%E -5.89%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.93%E -2.61%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.30%E -5.89%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -9.93%E -2.61%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -11.10%E -3.13%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-21 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.30%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.30%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.30%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -7.74%E -4.30%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.30%E -3.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 07:40
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.28%EV -13.89%E -8.27%K -20.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.60%EV -13.48%E -3.69%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.12%EV -14.11%E -4.11%K -5.80%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-25 11:34
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 49.92%EV -11.33%E -6.55%K -15.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -17.04%E -4.87%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -14.86%E -4.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-21 07:40
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.60%EV -14.92%E -8.99%K -22.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.70%EV -19.41%E -5.71%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.70%EV -14.86%E -4.37%K -6.19%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-13 05:34
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.94%EV -14.92%E -8.99%K -22.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.82%EV -15.85%E -4.47%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.24%EV -16.11%E -4.81%K -6.85%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-25 11:35
NetBet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 51.20%EV -16.46%E -10.10%K -26.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.51%EV -15.85%E -4.47%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.29%EV -17.36%E -5.26%K -7.55%G +0.000%19.8%2026-07-22 13:43
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 50.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.63%16.5%2026-07-13 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 22.50%1.07I 93.46%NM 39.11%1.09I 91.74%NM 38.39%139.0%2026-07-21 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 22.50%1.07I 93.46%NM 39.11%1.09I 91.74%NM 38.39%139.0%2026-07-21 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.11%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.81%1.03I 97.09%NM 34.08%184.9%2026-07-13 12:15