Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 11:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 50.16%1.99fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.858%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.62%50.08%50.14%50.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.861.851.9657.80%53.78%54.05%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 25.66%3.90fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.654%
Kelly -0.887%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.70%25.69%25.67%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.533.553.8031.25%28.35%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.274%
Kelly -0.362%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.23%24.20%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.723.754.0931.25%26.87%26.67%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 50.16%; Dynamo Dresden (Visit): 25.66%; Draw: 24.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.09, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.04%EV -1.68%E -0.858%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -11.76%E -3.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.16%EV -2.18%E -1.12%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -10.55%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 11:00
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -2.69%E -1.38%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 11:00
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 11:00
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Pinnacle🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.40%EV -3.69%E -1.92%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -4.28%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.66%EV -1.12%E -0.274%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 10:59
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 11:00
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 11:00
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.73%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.10%EV -6.59%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.17%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 10:59
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:00
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -3.77%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 10:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -3.77%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 10:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -11.47%E -3.32%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 11:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -11.47%E -3.32%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 10:59
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.33%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 10:59
Suprabets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.94%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.76%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 10:56
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 10:59
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -14.03%E -4.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.38%E -4.40%K -6.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.93%EV -6.70%E -3.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -16.59%E -4.81%K -6.77%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-11 11:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -2.48%E -0.654%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 10:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.42%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -4.75%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 10:59
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 11:00
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 10:59
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 10:59
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 11:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 10:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 10:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -15.32%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -16.59%E -4.81%K -6.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 11:00
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -15.32%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -16.59%E -4.81%K -6.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 11:00
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 11:00
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 10:59
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -3.77%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:00
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.17%EV -9.71%E -5.39%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -11.76%E -3.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.71%E -5.39%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -9.71%E -5.39%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.19%EV -10.71%E -6.02%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.28%EV -11.03%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.40%EV -11.21%E -6.34%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -10.55%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 10:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.04%EV -11.21%E -6.34%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -17.88%E -5.59%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.38%EV -19.01%E -5.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%17.6%2026-04-11 11:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.03%EV -11.71%E -6.66%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-11 11:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.59%EV -12.22%E -6.98%K -16.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.30%EV -15.32%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.79%EV -13.22%E -7.64%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.83%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.38%EV -22.64%E -7.07%K -10.29%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-11 10:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.91%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.14%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.5%2026-04-11 11:00
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54%1.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 50.84%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%2.4%2026-04-11 11:00