La escuela de los momios

1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden

Inicio: 2026-04-11 11:02 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Predicción 50.16%1.99momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -0.858%
Kelly -1.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.62%50.08%50.14%50.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.861.851.9657.80%53.78%54.05%51.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Dynamo Dresden (Visitante)

Predicción 25.66%3.90momio equitativo
EV -2.48%
Ventaja -0.654%
Kelly -0.887%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.70%25.69%25.67%26.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.533.553.8031.25%28.35%28.17%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.18%4.14momio equitativo
EV -1.12%
Ventaja -0.274%
Kelly -0.362%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.09

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.61%24.23%24.20%26.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.723.754.0931.25%26.87%26.67%24.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.04%EV -1.68%E -0.858%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -11.76%E -3.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 11:00
Svenska Spel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.16%EV -2.18%E -1.12%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -10.55%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 11:00
Unibet1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -2.69%E -1.38%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 11:00
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 11:00
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:50
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.08%EV -3.19%E -1.65%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Pinnacle1.92I 52.08%NM 50.40%EV -3.69%E -1.92%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -4.28%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.66%EV -1.12%E -0.274%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 10:59
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 11:00
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 11:00
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.73%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.10%EV -6.59%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.17%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 10:59
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:00
betPARX1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -4.19%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -3.77%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 10:59
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -3.77%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 10:59
Codere (IT)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
BetOnline.ag1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -11.47%E -3.32%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 11:00
LowVig.ag1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -5.70%E -3.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -11.47%E -3.32%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 10:59
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.33%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 10:59
Suprabets1.87I 53.48%NM 49.94%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.76%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 10:56
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 10:59
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -8.90%E -2.51%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 11:00
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -6.20%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -14.03%E -4.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.38%E -4.40%K -6.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 11:00
LiveScore Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 47.93%EV -6.70%E -3.60%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -16.59%E -4.81%K -6.77%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-11 11:00
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -2.48%E -0.654%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 10:59
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.42%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -4.75%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 10:59
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 11:00
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:59
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 10:59
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 10:59
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 11:00
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 10:59
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 10:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -15.32%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -16.59%E -4.81%K -6.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 11:00
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -7.20%E -3.89%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -15.32%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -16.59%E -4.81%K -6.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 11:00
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 11:00
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.05%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 10:59
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -3.77%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:00
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.17%EV -9.71%E -5.39%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -7.62%E -2.12%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -11.76%E -3.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.71%E -5.39%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 11:00
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -9.71%E -5.39%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.19%EV -10.71%E -6.02%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.28%EV -11.03%E -3.00%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 10:54
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.40%EV -11.21%E -6.34%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -10.55%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 10:59
PMU (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 48.04%EV -11.21%E -6.34%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -17.88%E -5.59%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.38%EV -19.01%E -5.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%17.6%2026-04-11 11:00
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.03%EV -11.71%E -6.66%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -10.18%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -14.17%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-11 11:00
NetBet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 49.59%EV -12.22%E -6.98%K -16.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.30%EV -15.32%E -4.64%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 48.79%EV -13.22%E -7.64%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.83%EV -12.75%E -3.75%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.38%EV -22.64%E -7.07%K -10.29%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-11 10:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.91%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-04-11 11:00
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.14%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.5%2026-04-11 11:00
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54%1.9%2026-04-11 11:00
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 50.84%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%2.4%2026-04-11 11:00