Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 4–3 VfL Osnabrück

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Heidenheim (Local)

Prediction 56.63%1.77fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -6.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.73%56.68%56.58%59.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.621.641.6968.03%61.71%60.98%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Osnabrück (Visit)

Prediction 19.22%5.20fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.353%
Kelly +0.435%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.49%19.19%19.28%20.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.864.805.3023.09%20.58%20.83%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.14%4.14fair odd
EV +1.41%
Edge +0.335%
Kelly +0.439%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.64%24.13%24.14%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.854.2028.57%26.09%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Heidenheim (Local): 56.63%; VfL Osnabrück (Visit): 19.22%; Draw: 24.14%. For VfL Osnabrück (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.20. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.89%EV -10.52%E -6.66%K -18.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.95%EV -5.99%E -3.61%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -0.051%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 08:45
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -1.97%E -0.387%K -0.481%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -1.97%E -0.387%K -0.481%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.51%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 18.87%EV -2.74%E -0.542%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.61%EV -6.32%E -1.63%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 10:40
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.34%EV -7.69%E -4.71%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV +1.41%E +0.335%K +0.439%G +0.006%5.2%2026-08-08 08:15
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.75%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 08:15
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.19%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 10:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -12.22%E -7.88%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -12.22%E -7.88%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.50%EV -13.92%E -9.15%K -26.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.50%EV -13.92%E -9.15%K -26.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -7.04%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 10:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -7.04%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.53%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 08:46
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.17%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 10:49
Suprabets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.03%EV -9.94%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 10:37
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.21%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.75%EV -7.55%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 10:48
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -7.74%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.325%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 08:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -7.74%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.49%E -4.43%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 08:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.32%EV -16.75%E -11.39%K -35.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.86%EV -7.74%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.82%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-08 10:20
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 08:45
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 10:39
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 10:40
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 08:15
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:50
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.89%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.43%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.54%EV -10.62%E -2.28%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.03%EV -8.73%E -2.31%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 10:34
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:31
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -7.04%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:53
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 08:15
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 10:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.90%EV -13.35%E -8.72%K -25.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.92%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.18%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-08 10:50
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 08:45
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 10:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.74%EV -11.65%E -7.47%K -20.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.76%EV -15.43%E -3.51%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.50%EV -14.29%E -4.02%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-08 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:31
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.73%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.78%0.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.73%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.78%0.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.51%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.78%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.81%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-08-08 10:55

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.