Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück

Inicio: 2026-08-08 11:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 4–3 VfL Osnabrück

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Heidenheim (Local)

Predicción 56.63%1.77momio equitativo
EV -4.29%
Ventaja -2.54%
Kelly -6.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.73%56.68%56.58%59.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.621.641.6968.03%61.71%60.98%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

VfL Osnabrück (Visitante)

Predicción 19.22%5.20momio equitativo
EV +1.87%
Ventaja +0.353%
Kelly +0.435%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.49%19.19%19.28%20.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.334.864.805.3023.09%20.58%20.83%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.14%4.14momio equitativo
EV +1.41%
Ventaja +0.335%
Kelly +0.439%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.64%24.13%24.14%25.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.833.854.2028.57%26.09%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: 1. FC Heidenheim (Local): 56.63%; VfL Osnabrück (Visitante): 19.22%; Empate: 24.14%. Para VfL Osnabrück (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.20. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.87%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.89%EV -10.52%E -6.66%K -18.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV +1.87%E +0.353%K +0.435%G +0.008%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.95%EV -5.99%E -3.61%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -0.051%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 08:45
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -1.97%E -0.387%K -0.481%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 10:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -1.97%E -0.387%K -0.481%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 10:55
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.51%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 18.87%EV -2.74%E -0.542%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.61%EV -6.32%E -1.63%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 10:40
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.34%EV -7.69%E -4.71%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV +1.41%E +0.335%K +0.439%G +0.006%5.2%2026-08-08 08:15
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.75%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 08:15
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.19%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 10:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -12.22%E -7.88%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -12.22%E -7.88%K -22.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.50%EV -13.92%E -9.15%K -26.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.50%EV -13.92%E -9.15%K -26.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -3.90%E -0.779%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 10:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -7.04%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 10:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -7.04%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.53%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 08:46
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.17%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.25%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 10:49
Suprabets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -5.82%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.03%EV -9.94%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 10:37
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.21%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.75%EV -7.55%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 10:48
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -7.74%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.325%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 08:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -7.74%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.49%E -4.43%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 08:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.32%EV -16.75%E -11.39%K -35.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.86%EV -7.74%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.82%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-08 10:20
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 08:45
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 10:39
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 10:40
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:45
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 08:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 08:15
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:50
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.89%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -8.70%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.43%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.54%EV -10.62%E -2.28%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.03%EV -8.73%E -2.31%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 10:34
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 10:31
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -7.04%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 10:53
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 08:15
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.38%E -5.87%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 10:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.90%EV -13.35%E -8.72%K -25.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.92%EV -11.58%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.18%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-08 10:50
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 08:45
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -7.12%E -4.34%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -13.51%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 10:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.74%EV -11.65%E -7.47%K -20.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.76%EV -15.43%E -3.51%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.50%EV -14.29%E -4.02%K -5.60%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-08 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:31
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -16.77%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 09:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.73%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.78%0.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.73%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.78%0.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-08-08 10:55
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.51%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.78%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-08-08 10:55
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.81%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.54%1.2%2026-08-08 10:55