Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen

Inicio: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Predicción 46.19%2.16momio equitativo
EV -2.99%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.72%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.72%46.33%46.21%47.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.832.002.002.1054.64%50.09%50.00%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Werder Bremen (Visitante)

Predicción 27.33%3.66momio equitativo
EV +1.40%
Ventaja +0.378%
Kelly +0.517%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.48%27.27%27.30%28.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.463.453.7131.75%28.89%28.99%26.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.47%3.78momio equitativo
EV +1.92%
Ventaja +0.499%
Kelly +0.674%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.22%26.40%26.49%28.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.523.503.8531.75%28.40%28.57%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SC Freiburg (Local): 46.19%; Werder Bremen (Visitante): 27.33%; Empate: 26.47%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.78. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.92%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.23%EV -2.99%E -1.42%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV +1.92%E +0.499%K +0.674%G +0.013%3.0%2026-07-10 19:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -0.725%E -0.193%K -0.264%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 03:15
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.05%E -0.554%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 19:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.05%E -0.554%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 16:53
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.05%E -0.554%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -2.05%E -0.554%K -0.759%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-09 02:35
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.84%EV -2.99%E -1.42%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.51%EV +1.40%E +0.378%K +0.517%G +0.007%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.65%EV -2.31%E -0.627%K -0.860%G +0.000%1.7%2026-07-15 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.60%EV -3.91%E -1.88%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.77%EV -1.06%E -0.293%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.63%EV -3.64%E -0.999%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-28 13:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.93%EV -6.22%E -3.07%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.61%EV -2.15%E -0.601%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.93%EV -6.22%E -3.07%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.61%EV -2.15%E -0.601%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 14:15
Bovada🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.95%EV -6.69%E -3.31%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -2.97%E -0.837%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-14 15:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.61%E -0.446%K -0.618%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 20:19
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 19:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 16:55
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 16:55
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 19:55
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 19:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.70%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 19:54
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.02%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.64%EV -3.52%E -0.997%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.34%EV -5.49%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 15:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87%EV -3.91%E -1.88%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -6.02%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-14 12:59
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.91%E -1.88%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -6.02%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-13 10:39
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.91%E -1.88%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -6.02%E -1.70%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-13 10:40
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -2.99%E -1.42%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 01:34
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:07
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -9.92%E -5.09%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:45
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 02:20
Bally Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:34
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:34
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:35
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 04:39
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-07 10:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -10.38%E -5.35%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -0.239%E -0.065%K -0.090%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 17:31
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-14 12:59
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.92%E -5.09%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-01 10:34
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.92%E -5.09%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-01 10:33
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.92%E -5.09%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-10 19:45
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.67%E -2.51%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-11 15:09
Suprabets🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.92%E -5.09%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.42%EV -5.16%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -8.67%E -2.51%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 21:10
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.94%EV -9.92%E -5.09%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -8.67%E -2.51%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 21:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.81%EV -8.53%E -4.31%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.91%EV -11.17%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -8.67%E -2.51%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-14 12:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.30%E -2.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-14 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-11 15:10
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.61%E -3.81%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.17%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-06 11:29
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -2.99%E -1.42%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -12.64%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 12:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.03%EV -12.23%E -6.44%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.64%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-07 04:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.03%EV -12.23%E -6.44%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.64%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.48%EV -12.23%E -6.44%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.76%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.76%EV -12.64%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-14 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.72%EV -11.31%E -5.89%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.26%EV -11.99%E -3.72%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -13.96%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-14 12:57
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.26%EV -15.46%E -8.45%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.87%EV -13.90%E -4.41%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.87%EV -16.61%E -5.27%K -7.73%G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-16 19:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 44.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%16.9%2026-07-16 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 30.18%1.34I 74.63%NM 30.18%1.02I 98.04%NM 39.64%147.3%2026-07-17 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.34I 74.63%NM 30.18%1.34I 74.63%NM 30.18%1.02I 98.04%NM 39.64%147.3%2026-07-17 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 30.18%1.34I 74.63%NM 30.18%1.02I 98.04%NM 39.64%147.3%2026-07-17 11:50