Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guingamp v Boulogne

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Guingamp 1–0 Boulogne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guingamp (Local)

Prediction 51.36%1.95fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.69%51.41%51.41%53.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.781.8759.52%56.04%56.18%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boulogne (Visit)

Prediction 20.99%4.76fair odd
EV +0.764%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.201%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.36%20.88%21.02%22.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.384.404.8025.00%22.83%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.65%3.62fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.518%
Kelly -0.722%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.07%27.71%27.57%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.353.5532.26%29.85%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guingamp (Local): 51.36%; Boulogne (Visit): 20.99%; Draw: 27.65%. For Boulogne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.764%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV +0.764%E +0.159%K +0.201%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:30
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -0.286%E -0.060%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.52%EV -9.61%E -5.46%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -0.286%E -0.060%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.86%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -1.34%E -0.284%K -0.361%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.73%EV -4.33%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-14 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -1.34%E -0.284%K -0.361%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.43%E -0.747%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.60%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.40%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.71%EV -3.43%E -0.747%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -4.60%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 18:34
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:29
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 18:29
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 18:34
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%EV -3.96%E -2.12%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -3.22%E -0.921%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 18:29
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:10
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:08
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -8.58%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.37%E -2.20%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -8.58%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.37%E -2.20%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Suprabets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.59%EV -9.61%E -5.46%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.77%EV -9.58%E -2.93%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 18:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.65%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:30
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:29
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.08%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.41%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -14.28%E -4.61%K -6.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -3.96%E -2.12%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:14
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.20%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:30
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.20%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -10.78%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -10.78%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:29
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.63%EV -12.69%E -7.47%K -18.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.05%EV -10.78%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 06:09
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:29
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.08%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:29
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.43%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -13.72%E -8.17%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 06:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -13.72%E -8.17%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 06:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -13.72%E -8.17%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 06:10
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:35
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 53.08%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66%1.8%2026-08-14 18:40