Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Guingamp v Boulogne

Inicio: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Guingamp 1–0 Boulogne

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Guingamp (Local)

Predicción 51.36%1.95momio equitativo
EV -3.96%
Ventaja -2.12%
Kelly -4.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.69%51.41%51.41%53.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.781.781.8759.52%56.04%56.18%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Boulogne (Visitante)

Predicción 20.99%4.76momio equitativo
EV +0.764%
Ventaja +0.159%
Kelly +0.201%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.36%20.88%21.02%22.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.384.404.8025.00%22.83%22.73%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.65%3.62momio equitativo
EV -1.84%
Ventaja -0.518%
Kelly -0.722%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.07%27.71%27.57%28.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.353.353.5532.26%29.85%29.85%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Guingamp (Local): 51.36%; Boulogne (Visitante): 20.99%; Empate: 27.65%. Para Boulogne (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.76. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.764%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV +0.764%E +0.159%K +0.201%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:30
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -0.286%E -0.060%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.52%EV -9.61%E -5.46%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -0.286%E -0.060%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.86%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -1.34%E -0.284%K -0.361%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.73%EV -4.33%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-14 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -1.34%E -0.284%K -0.361%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.43%E -0.747%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -4.60%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.40%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.71%EV -3.43%E -0.747%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -4.60%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 18:34
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 18:29
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 18:29
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -5.53%E -1.23%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 18:34
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%EV -3.96%E -2.12%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -3.22%E -0.921%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 18:29
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:10
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:08
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.89%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -1.84%E -0.518%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 06:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -8.58%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.37%E -2.20%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -8.58%E -4.82%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.37%E -2.20%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Suprabets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.59%EV -9.61%E -5.46%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.77%EV -9.58%E -2.93%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 18:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.65%EV -10.13%E -5.79%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:30
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:29
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.08%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.41%EV -9.10%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -14.28%E -4.61%K -6.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -3.96%E -2.12%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:14
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.20%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:30
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.20%EV -6.53%E -3.59%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -9.73%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -4.99%E -2.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -10.78%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -10.78%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:29
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.63%EV -12.69%E -7.47%K -18.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.05%EV -10.78%E -2.54%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 06:09
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:29
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.08%EV -9.10%E -5.14%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.75%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:29
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.43%EV -11.15%E -6.45%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -10.14%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -13.72%E -8.17%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 06:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -13.72%E -8.17%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 06:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -13.72%E -8.17%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -11.83%E -2.82%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 06:10
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -7.56%E -4.20%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -16.03%E -4.01%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.52%E -3.60%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:35
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.08%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66%1.8%2026-08-14 18:40