Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Amiens v Red Star

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Amiens 1–3 Red Star

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Amiens (Local)

Prediction 22.02%4.54fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.93%22.11%21.93%23.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.174.204.4326.32%23.98%23.81%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Red Star (Visit)

Prediction 53.49%1.87fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.73%53.41%53.48%54.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.711.8059.88%58.28%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.49%4.08fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -0.680%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%24.49%24.59%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.743.754.0030.77%26.71%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Amiens (Local): 22.02%; Red Star (Visit): 53.49%; Draw: 24.49%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.66%EV -2.44%E -0.552%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.61%EV -4.26%E -2.38%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.73%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Coolbet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -3.11%E -0.706%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.49%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.04%E -0.510%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Bet Victor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -3.11%E -0.706%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -7.47%E -4.32%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 17:50
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -3.11%E -0.706%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -3.11%E -0.706%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Bovada🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -4.21%E -0.967%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.23%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -4.65%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.54%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 17:50
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.31%E -1.23%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -5.33%E -3.01%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.31%E -1.23%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -5.86%E -3.33%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.31%E -1.23%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -5.86%E -3.33%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -5.31%E -1.23%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.55%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -6.41%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -6.93%E -3.98%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -3.72%E -2.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:55
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.18%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 17:20
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:50
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:50
SportsBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -8.00%E -4.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 17:50
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -10.14%E -6.04%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -10.14%E -6.04%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -10.14%E -6.04%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:20
Everygame🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -10.61%E -2.91%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:49
Suprabets🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.00%EV -11.10%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 17:52
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -7.51%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 17:55
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.56%EV -8.54%E -4.99%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.53%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -8.16%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 17:50
PlayUp🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.71%EV -8.00%E -4.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.91%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.14%EV -8.65%E -2.32%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 17:50
Betsson🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.68%EV -10.81%E -2.67%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:50
NordicBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.68%EV -10.81%E -2.67%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:50
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.49%EV -6.93%E -3.98%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.62%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.78%EV -10.67%E -6.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.61%EV -20.41%E -6.28%K -9.07%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -13.01%E -3.29%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.84%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -15.22%E -3.95%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.97%EV -8.00%E -4.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -15.22%E -3.95%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.97%EV -8.00%E -4.65%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 17:50
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -16.32%E -4.29%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -9.07%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -14.28%E -4.08%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-02 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-05-02 17:50
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.31%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.87%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%2.0%2026-05-02 17:55