Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nice v Lille

2026-09-20 15:15 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nice (Local)

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV +5.41%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.83%
Growth +0.099%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%26.73%26.96%29.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.463.403.9532.26%28.94%29.41%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lille (Visit)

Prediction 45.95%2.18fair odd
EV +5.23%
Edge +2.28%
Kelly +4.05%
Growth +0.212%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.64%45.81%45.66%48.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.042.052.2955.56%49.10%48.78%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.36%3.65fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.413%
Kelly -0.572%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.46%27.38%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.6031.25%29.36%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nice (Local): 26.69%; Lille (Visit): 45.95%; Draw: 27.36%. For Nice (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.95, producing a positive expected value of +5.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.93%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.96%EV +5.23%E +2.28%K +4.05%G +0.212%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.7%2026-09-06 19:15
Pinnacle🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.93%EV -13.01%E -3.99%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.67%EV +1.55%E +0.701%K +1.28%G +0.020%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.40%EV -9.15%E -2.76%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 19:20
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -17.28%E -5.57%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -1.21%E -0.561%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 19:15
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 19:20
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 19:18
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 19:20
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -14.61%E -4.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -14.61%E -4.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -14.61%E -4.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 19:20
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -14.61%E -4.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -3.50%E -1.67%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 19:20
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.49%E -0.413%K -0.572%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 19:24
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.49%E -0.413%K -0.572%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:15
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:25
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.80%E -2.83%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 19:25
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.10%E -4.05%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 19:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV +5.41%E +1.37%K +1.83%G +0.099%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.51%EV -9.48%E -4.81%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV +1.40%E +0.369%K +0.501%G +0.007%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -11.32%E -5.86%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 19:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV +1.40%E +0.369%K +0.501%G +0.007%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.18%EV -11.32%E -5.86%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 19:20
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -1.27%E -0.342%K -0.469%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.25%EV -12.69%E -6.68%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -2.60%E -0.712%K -0.981%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.36%EV -13.61%E -7.24%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 19:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -5.27%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.10%EV -14.53%E -7.81%K -16.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 19:18
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.21%EV -16.37%E -8.99%K -19.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.42%EV -12.43%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.31%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.80%EV -17.29%E -9.61%K -21.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -12.43%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-06 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 24.83%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.09%16.7%2026-09-06 19:20
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 35.07%1.59I 62.89%NM 35.52%1.92I 52.08%NM 29.41%77.1%2026-09-06 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.30%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.09%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.61%183.3%2026-09-06 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.30%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.09%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.61%183.3%2026-09-06 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 17:15
Arbitrage (110 combinations) +3.35%Codere (IT) 3.95 (26.2%) / 1xBet 2.29 (45.1%) / SportsBet 3.60 (28.7%)Show all 110 combinations
Nice (Local)Lille (Visit)DrawMargin
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.2%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (45.1%)SportsBet🎯 3.60 (28.7%)+3.35%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.2%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (45.1%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.7%)+3.35%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)1xBet🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)Codere (IT)🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)Coral🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)BetMGM🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)FanDuel🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)Sky Bet🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (26.0%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.8%)Paddy Power🎯 3.50 (29.3%)+2.51%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.9%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.7%)SportsBet🎯 3.60 (28.4%)+2.29%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.9%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.7%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.4%)+2.29%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.9%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.7%)SportsBet🎯 3.60 (28.4%)+2.29%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.9%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.7%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.4%)+2.29%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)Pinnacle🎯 2.21 (46.0%)SportsBet🎯 3.60 (28.2%)+1.68%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)Pinnacle🎯 2.21 (46.0%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.2%)+1.68%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.4%)Neds🎯 3.40 (29.9%)+1.63%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.4%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.9%)+1.63%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.4%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 3.40 (29.9%)+1.63%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 3.40 (29.9%)+1.63%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.4%)LeoVegas🎯 3.40 (29.9%)+1.63%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.4%)Winamax (DE)🎯 3.40 (29.9%)+1.63%
LeoVegas🎯 3.70 (27.4%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)SportsBet🎯 3.60 (28.2%)+1.55%
LeoVegas🎯 3.70 (27.4%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.2%)+1.55%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)1xBet🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Codere (IT)🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Coral🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)BetMGM🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)FanDuel🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Sky Bet🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Paddy Power🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)1xBet🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Codere (IT)🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Coral🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)BetMGM🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)FanDuel🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Sky Bet🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.3%)Paddy Power🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.47%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.6%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.2%)Betclic (FR)🎯 3.35 (30.2%)+1.18%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.65 (27.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.2%)SportsBet🎯 3.60 (28.1%)+1.17%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.65 (27.7%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.2%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.1%)+1.17%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.5%)1xBet🎯 2.29 (44.1%)Pinnacle🎯 3.32 (30.4%)+0.903%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.21 (45.6%)1xBet🎯 3.50 (28.8%)+0.871%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.21 (45.6%)Codere (IT)🎯 3.50 (28.8%)+0.871%
Codere (IT)🎯 3.95 (25.5%)Pinnacle🎯 2.21 (45.6%)Coral🎯 3.50 (28.8%)+0.871%

Showing 50 of 110 combinations