Language:English
VPS Vaasa v IFK Mariehamn
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VPS Vaasa (Local)
Prediction 73.53%1.36fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -6.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.87%73.54%73.64%75.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.271.271.3383.33%78.84%78.74%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
IFK Mariehamn (Visit)
Prediction 9.67%10.34fair odd
EV +6.39%
Edge +0.581%
Kelly +0.639%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.33%9.62%9.65%11.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.119.0011.0012.50%10.98%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.80%5.95fair odd
EV +3.99%
Edge +0.645%
Kelly +0.769%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 6.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%16.84%16.71%18.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.315.106.1920.41%18.82%19.61%16.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VPS Vaasa (Local): 73.53%; IFK Mariehamn (Visit): 9.67%; Draw: 16.80%. For IFK Mariehamn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.34. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.21%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.75%EV +6.39%E +0.581%K +0.639%G +0.041% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.04%EV +0.799%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.58%EV -10.30%E -8.44%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV +6.39%E +0.581%K +0.639%G +0.041% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -3.40%E -0.592%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +6.39%E +0.581%K +0.639%G +0.041% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -8.83%E -7.12%K -36.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV +0.799%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.61%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV +1.56%E +0.148%K +0.164%G +0.003% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -5.08%E -0.899%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.14%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 10.31I 9.70%NM 9.33%EV -0.282%E -0.027%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 6.19I 16.16%NM 15.54%EV +3.99%E +0.645%K +0.769%G +0.031% | 4.0% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.26%EV -10.30%E -8.44%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -3.28%E -0.328%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.56%EV -0.881%E -0.149%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV -5.21%E -0.532%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -9.28%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV -5.21%E -0.532%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -9.28%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.08%EV -3.68%E -2.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -11.80%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -3.40%E -0.592%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.06%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.06%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -11.80%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -11.77%E -9.81%K -58.83%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -8.12%E -0.854%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -7.60%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.86%EV -2.21%E -1.66%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 9.13I 10.95%NM 10.47%EV -11.69%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.67%EV -9.11%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.89%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 9.06I 11.04%NM 10.30%EV -12.37%E -1.37%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.81%EV -6.76%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV +0.799%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV +0.799%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV +0.799%E +0.133%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -5.92%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -6.62%E -5.21%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -7.60%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -4.24%E -0.744%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -7.35%E -5.84%K -28.29%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -9.28%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.62%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -11.80%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.62%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -11.80%E -2.25%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -8.09%E -6.47%K -32.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -10.30%E -8.44%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -12.95%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -4.41%E -3.39%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.19%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.19%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-04 14:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -5.15%E -3.99%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -16.00%E -3.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -10.30%E -8.44%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -17.79%E -2.09%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -7.60%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.87%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV -22.62%E -2.83%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.79%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.87%EV -5.88%E -4.60%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV -22.62%E -2.83%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.79%EV -14.32%E -2.81%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.02%EV -8.83%E -7.12%K -36.77%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.01%EV -22.62%E -2.83%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.97%EV -17.68%E -3.61%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 71.65%EV -11.03%E -9.12%K -52.53%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.84%EV -22.62%E -2.83%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.51%EV -16.84%E -3.40%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-07-04 14:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.14% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.78% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.36% | 1.8% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.78% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.36% | 1.8% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.92% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.26% | 2.4% | 2026-07-04 15:00 |