Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves Tampere v Jaro

Kickoff: 2026-06-17 15:02 UTC

Final: Ilves Tampere 5–0 Jaro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves Tampere (Local)

Prediction 57.77%1.73fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.82%57.89%57.97%60.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.611.611.6866.67%62.18%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaro (Visit)

Prediction 19.47%5.14fair odd
EV +7.09%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.65%19.43%19.41%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.644.605.5023.81%21.56%21.74%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.75%4.39fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.442%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.16%22.68%22.62%25.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.963.954.3330.77%25.27%25.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves Tampere (Local): 57.77%; Jaro (Visit): 19.47%; Draw: 22.75%. For Jaro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.93%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.65%EV +7.09%E +1.29%K +1.57%G +0.112%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.42%EV -1.47%E -0.340%K -0.442%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-17 15:01
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.39%EV -4.67%E -2.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 19.15%EV -2.06%E -0.410%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.46%EV -2.38%E -0.555%K -0.724%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-17 14:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -13.34%E -8.89%K -26.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -2.65%E -0.530%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -2.15%E -0.501%K -0.653%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-17 15:01
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.52%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -3.62%E -0.732%K -0.917%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.56%EV -5.57%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-17 15:00
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.52%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -3.62%E -0.732%K -0.917%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.56%EV -5.57%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-17 15:00
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.60%E -0.938%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.52%EV -5.57%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-17 14:59
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.72%EV -8.14%E -5.12%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -4.60%E -0.938%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -4.43%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-17 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.62%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -4.60%E -0.938%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-17 15:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.29%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.23%EV -5.57%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -5.57%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-17 14:59
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.07%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.56%EV -5.57%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -12.39%E -3.22%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-17 14:59
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.95%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.32%EV -6.54%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.73%EV -7.16%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-17 14:59
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -4.67%E -2.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-17 15:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.98%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-17 14:59
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.41%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-17 15:00
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -13.53%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-17 15:00
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-17 15:00
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -8.49%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -6.71%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-17 14:59
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.36%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.98%EV -9.46%E -2.04%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -6.71%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-17 15:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -2.94%E -1.75%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -6.71%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 14:59
BetAnything🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -2.94%E -1.75%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -6.71%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 14:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -2.94%E -1.75%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-17 15:01
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -2.94%E -1.75%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-17 15:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.43%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-17 15:00
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:01
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:00
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:00
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%EV -5.83%E -3.57%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-17 15:00
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-17 15:00
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -6.98%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-17 14:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -6.98%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-17 14:59
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -9.29%E -5.92%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-17 14:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.20%EV -6.98%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-17 15:01
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.19%EV -8.72%E -5.52%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.64%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.17%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-17 14:59
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.35%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-17 14:58
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -4.67%E -2.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-17 15:01
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -4.43%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-17 15:00
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-17 14:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-17 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -6.98%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-17 15:00
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -6.98%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.32%EV -11.26%E -2.89%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-17 15:00
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -9.29%E -5.92%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -12.38%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -13.53%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-17 15:00
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.33%E -3.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-17 14:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.33%E -3.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-17 14:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.33%E -3.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-17 15:00
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -14.33%E -3.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-17 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.65%EV -9.87%E -6.33%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.09%EV -14.33%E -3.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -13.53%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-17 14:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.35%EV -9.87%E -6.33%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.21%EV -15.30%E -3.52%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.8%2026-06-17 15:00
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.14%EV -9.29%E -5.92%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.36%EV -15.69%E -3.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.50%EV -14.67%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-17 15:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 54.82%EV -11.60%E -7.58%K -21.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.37%EV -15.69%E -3.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.81%EV -26.05%E -8.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%19.2%2026-06-17 15:00
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.93%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -18.22%E -4.34%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.06%EV -8.98%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000%13.3%2026-06-17 15:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.27%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-06-17 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-06-17 15:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-06-17 15:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.89%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.2%2026-06-17 15:01