Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

HJK Helsinki v TPS Turku

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 14:00 UTC

Final: HJK Helsinki 1–0 TPS Turku

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HJK Helsinki (Local)

Prediction 70.28%1.42fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.59%69.98%70.33%72.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.321.331.4081.97%75.74%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS Turku (Visit)

Prediction 12.10%8.26fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +0.476%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 8.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.20%12.35%12.13%14.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.297.078.6016.67%13.71%14.14%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.61%5.68fair odd
EV +3.93%
Edge +0.666%
Kelly +0.801%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.84%17.66%17.54%19.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.115.005.9021.74%19.57%20.00%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HJK Helsinki (Local): 70.28%; TPS Turku (Visit): 12.10%; Draw: 17.61%. For TPS Turku (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.47%EV -9.34%E -7.24%K -32.20%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.84%EV +3.93%E +0.666%K +0.801%G +0.031%7.0%2026-07-26 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.40%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.20%EV +4.09%E +0.476%K +0.538%G +0.022%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.40%EV +3.40%E +0.579%K +0.698%G +0.024%3.9%2026-07-26 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.58%EV -10.74%E -8.46%K -39.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV +2.17%E +0.373%K +0.451%G +0.010%8.5%2026-07-26 13:55
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.37%EV -6.20%E -0.799%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.75%EV -7.93%E -6.05%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -0.749%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.75%EV -7.93%E -6.05%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -0.749%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 13:45
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.75%EV -7.93%E -6.05%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -0.749%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 13:45
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 13:45
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.04%E -7.84%K -35.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -12.15%E -9.72%K -48.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -14.26%E -11.69%K -64.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 13:51
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.63%EV -7.23%E -5.48%K -22.59%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.11%EV -6.80%E -0.883%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -4.88%E -0.904%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 13:55
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.27%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.35%EV -16.48%E -2.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.38%EV -6.64%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.12%E -3.79%K -14.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 13:20
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:39
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -12.15%E -9.72%K -48.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.01%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -8.40%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 13:56
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.94%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 12.90%EV -12.01%E -1.65%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.17%EV -9.11%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 13:35
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -3.01%E -2.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%6.81I 14.68%NM 13.76%EV -17.57%E -2.58%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.34%EV -9.99%E -1.95%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 13:55
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -1.61%E -1.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -18.30%E -2.71%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 13:40
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.23%E -5.48%K -22.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 13:45
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -12.25%E -1.69%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 13:40
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 13:45
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -10.04%E -7.84%K -35.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 13:35
GTbets🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.08%EV -3.71%E -2.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.07I 14.14%NM 13.19%EV -14.43%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.73%EV -12.28%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 13:50
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.27%EV +0.461%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.90%EV -12.81%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.27%EV +0.461%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.90%EV -12.81%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 13:55
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.25%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-26 13:35
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.38%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.60%EV -14.57%E -3.00%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -27.38%E -4.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -16.33%E -3.44%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-26 13:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.72%EV -10.04%E -7.84%K -35.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.57%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.72%EV -17.21%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-26 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -18.30%E -2.71%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -18.97%E -4.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.66%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.81%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-07-26 13:45
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.66%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.81%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-07-26 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%1.1%2026-07-26 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%1.1%2026-07-26 13:55