Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

HJK Helsinki v TPS Turku

Inicio: 2026-07-26 14:00 UTC

Final: HJK Helsinki 1–0 TPS Turku

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

HJK Helsinki (Local)

Predicción 70.28%1.42momio equitativo
EV -1.61%
Ventaja -1.15%
Kelly -4.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.59%69.98%70.33%72.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.221.321.331.4081.97%75.74%75.19%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

TPS Turku (Visitante)

Predicción 12.10%8.26momio equitativo
EV +4.09%
Ventaja +0.476%
Kelly +0.538%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.20%12.35%12.13%14.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.007.297.078.6016.67%13.71%14.14%11.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.61%5.68momio equitativo
EV +3.93%
Ventaja +0.666%
Kelly +0.801%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.84%17.66%17.54%19.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.115.005.9021.74%19.57%20.00%16.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: HJK Helsinki (Local): 70.28%; TPS Turku (Visitante): 12.10%; Empate: 17.61%. Para TPS Turku (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.26. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.09%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.47%EV -9.34%E -7.24%K -32.20%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.84%EV +3.93%E +0.666%K +0.801%G +0.031%7.0%2026-07-26 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.40%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.20%EV +4.09%E +0.476%K +0.538%G +0.022%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.40%EV +3.40%E +0.579%K +0.698%G +0.024%3.9%2026-07-26 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.58%EV -10.74%E -8.46%K -39.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV +2.17%E +0.373%K +0.451%G +0.010%8.5%2026-07-26 13:55
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.37%EV -6.20%E -0.799%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.75%EV -7.93%E -6.05%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -0.749%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.75%EV -7.93%E -6.05%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -0.749%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 13:45
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.75%EV -7.93%E -6.05%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -0.749%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 13:45
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 13:45
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.04%E -7.84%K -35.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.17%E -0.396%K -0.453%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -12.15%E -9.72%K -48.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -14.26%E -11.69%K -64.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 13:51
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.63%EV -7.23%E -5.48%K -22.59%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.11%EV -6.80%E -0.883%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -4.88%E -0.904%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 13:55
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.27%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.35%EV -16.48%E -2.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.38%EV -6.64%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.12%E -3.79%K -14.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 13:20
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:39
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -12.15%E -9.72%K -48.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.01%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -8.40%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 13:56
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.94%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 12.90%EV -12.01%E -1.65%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.17%EV -9.11%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 13:35
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -3.01%E -2.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%6.81I 14.68%NM 13.76%EV -17.57%E -2.58%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.34%EV -9.99%E -1.95%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 13:55
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -1.61%E -1.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -18.30%E -2.71%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 13:40
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.23%E -5.48%K -22.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 13:45
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.48%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -12.25%E -1.69%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 13:40
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 13:45
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -10.04%E -7.84%K -35.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-26 13:35
GTbets🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.08%EV -3.71%E -2.71%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.07I 14.14%NM 13.19%EV -14.43%E -2.04%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.73%EV -12.28%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 13:50
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.27%EV +0.461%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.90%EV -12.81%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.27%EV +0.461%E +0.056%K +0.063%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.90%EV -12.81%E -2.59%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 13:55
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -5.82%E -4.35%K -17.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 13:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.25%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-26 13:35
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.38%EV -8.63%E -6.64%K -28.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -9.22%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.60%EV -14.57%E -3.00%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -21.33%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 13:50
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -6.53%E -4.91%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -27.38%E -4.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -16.33%E -3.44%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-26 13:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.72%EV -10.04%E -7.84%K -35.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.57%EV -15.27%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.72%EV -17.21%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-26 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -4.42%E -3.25%K -12.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -18.30%E -2.71%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -18.97%E -4.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.66%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.81%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-07-26 13:45
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 73.66%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.81%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-07-26 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%1.1%2026-07-26 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%1.1%2026-07-26 13:55