Language:English
Port Vale v Sunderland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Vale (Local)
Prediction 13.72%7.29fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +0.651%
Kelly +0.749%
Growth +0.037%
assuming max odds 7.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.39%13.81%13.70%15.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.766.757.6516.67%14.79%14.81%13.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sunderland (Visit)
Prediction 63.43%1.58fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -5.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%63.42%63.38%65.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.471.5371.43%67.90%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.85%4.38fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.628%
Kelly +0.807%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%22.77%22.92%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.174.204.5027.78%24.00%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 13.72%; Sunderland (Visit): 63.43%; Draw: 22.85%. For Port Vale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.29. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 7.65I 13.07%NM 12.56%EV +4.98%E +0.651%K +0.749%G +0.037% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.46%EV -5.49%E -3.69%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.98%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-08 13:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.65I 13.07%NM 12.56%EV +4.98%E +0.651%K +0.749%G +0.037% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.46%EV -5.49%E -3.69%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.98%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-08 13:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 7.65I 13.07%NM 12.56%EV +4.98%E +0.651%K +0.749%G +0.037% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.46%EV -5.49%E -3.69%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.98%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-08 13:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.84%EV +4.30%E +0.565%K +0.651%G +0.028% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.20%EV -3.59%E -2.36%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.96%EV -2.89%E -0.679%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-08 09:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.59I 13.18%NM 12.68%EV +4.16%E +0.548%K +0.631%G +0.026% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.14%EV -4.86%E -3.24%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.18%EV -5.17%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-08 13:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV +2.92%E +0.390%K +0.450%G +0.013% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.15%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 10:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV +2.92%E +0.390%K +0.450%G +0.013% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.96%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -6.31%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 12:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.92%EV +1.55%E +0.210%K +0.243%G +0.004% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.88%EV -3.59%E -2.36%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 13:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.92%EV +1.55%E +0.210%K +0.243%G +0.004% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.88%EV -3.59%E -2.36%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 13:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.08%EV -0.506%E -0.070%K -0.081%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.22%EV -4.86%E -3.24%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -8.60%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 13:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.36%EV -1.19%E -0.166%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.72%EV -4.23%E -2.80%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-08 13:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.06I 14.16%NM 13.73%EV -3.11%E -0.441%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.35%EV -2.96%E -1.93%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.92%EV -3.34%E -0.790%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.91%EV -3.94%E -0.562%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.46%EV -4.23%E -2.80%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63%EV +2.83%E +0.628%K +0.807%G +0.023% | 2.7% | 2026-03-08 13:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.91%EV -3.94%E -0.562%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.46%EV -4.23%E -2.80%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63%EV +2.83%E +0.628%K +0.807%G +0.023% | 2.7% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -3.94%E -0.562%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.44%EV -5.49%E -3.69%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -6.31%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 13:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -3.94%E -0.562%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -6.31%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 08:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -3.94%E -0.562%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -8.60%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-08 10:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.28%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.72%EV -0.602%E -0.138%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.43%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.43%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 13:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 13:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.74%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.43%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -2.89%E -0.679%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -7.37%E -1.09%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.59%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -2.89%E -0.679%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.22%EV -9.43%E -1.43%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.43%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-08 12:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.91%EV -9.43%E -1.43%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.22%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-08 06:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.71%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.51%EV -2.96%E -1.93%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 12:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.94%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV +0.541%E +0.123%K +0.159%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-03-08 06:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 06:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.35%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -1.06%E -0.245%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 10:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -8.60%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 12:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.91%EV -7.40%E -5.07%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.60%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-08 13:18 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.88%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-08 13:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.88%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-08 13:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.88%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-08 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -8.67%E -6.02%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.88%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-08 13:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.43%EV -10.80%E -1.66%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.33%EV -11.20%E -8.00%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -17.74%E -4.93%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-08 10:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.39%EV -12.86%E -2.02%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.04%EV -8.03%E -5.54%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.57%EV -7.46%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-08 13:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -14.23%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.15%EV -2.96%E -1.93%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 12:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -14.23%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -6.13%E -4.14%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV +2.83%E +0.628%K +0.807%G +0.023% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 06:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -14.23%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.72%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -14.23%E -2.28%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.72%EV -9.30%E -6.50%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-08 13:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -17.66%E -2.94%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -2.96%E -1.93%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 12:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -17.66%E -2.94%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -2.96%E -1.93%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -17.66%E -2.94%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -2.96%E -1.93%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.03%E -0.959%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 12:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -17.66%E -2.94%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -6.76%E -4.60%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -1.74%E -0.406%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 12:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -17.66%E -2.94%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.86%E -3.24%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.60%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 12:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 13:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.32% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 0.7% | 2026-03-08 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.32% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 0.7% | 2026-03-08 13:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.32% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 0.7% | 2026-03-08 13:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.99% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87% | 1.7% | 2026-03-08 13:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.61% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.09% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30% | 3.1% | 2026-03-08 13:20 |