Language:English
Manchester City v Liverpool
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manchester City (Local)
Prediction 54.49%1.84fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.64%54.47%54.45%55.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.8059.88%57.82%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liverpool (Visit)
Prediction 22.72%4.40fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.253%
Kelly +0.326%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 4.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%22.72%22.78%23.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.134.154.4526.67%24.24%24.10%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.79%4.39fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.309%
Kelly -0.402%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.86%22.81%22.77%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.114.154.3329.41%24.32%24.10%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester City (Local): 54.49%; Liverpool (Visit): 22.72%; Draw: 22.79%. For Liverpool (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.35%EV -3.55%E -2.01%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 22.02%EV +1.13%E +0.253%K +0.326%G +0.004% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.63%EV -1.34%E -0.309%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.05%EV -0.465%E -0.106%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%EV -2.02%E -0.470%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.05%EV -0.465%E -0.106%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%EV -2.02%E -0.470%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-04 11:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.60%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.70%EV -1.60%E -0.370%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.70%EV -1.34%E -0.309%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-04-04 11:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -2.46%E -1.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.72%EV -2.28%E -0.531%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.72%EV -2.02%E -0.470%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -2.46%E -1.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -2.28%E -0.531%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -3.16%E -0.744%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-04 11:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.42%EV -2.46%E -1.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%EV -2.28%E -0.531%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.92%EV -3.16%E -0.744%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.98%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.25%EV -2.28%E -0.531%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.30%EV -3.01%E -1.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.85%EV -3.87%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.85%EV -3.62%E -0.855%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.14%EV -3.55%E -2.01%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.65%EV -3.87%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.20%EV -5.89%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 10:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 03:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 03:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -8.86%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -8.86%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 11:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.86%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 10:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.80%EV -7.91%E -4.68%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -4.56%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -8.86%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.88%EV -5.69%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.88%EV -5.44%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.88%EV -5.69%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.88%EV -5.44%E -1.31%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-04 11:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 03:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 11:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -8.46%E -5.03%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.86%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 11:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 11:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -2.02%E -0.470%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 03:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 11:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.86%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-04 10:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.65%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.53%EV -7.72%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.34%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -10.00%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.24%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -10.00%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.58%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -10.24%E -2.59%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -11.37%E -2.92%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -6.58%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-04 03:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.64%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.00%EV -14.78%E -3.94%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -22.53%E -6.63%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-04 11:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.14% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68% | 0.2% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.14% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68% | 0.2% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.14% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68% | 0.2% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.14% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68% | 0.2% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61% | 0.5% | 2026-04-04 11:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 11:30 |