Language:English
Chelsea v Leeds United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chelsea (Local)
Prediction 56.39%1.77fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.81%56.36%56.34%57.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.651.671.7365.79%60.58%60.06%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leeds United (Visit)
Prediction 19.64%5.09fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.408%
Kelly +0.505%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%19.65%19.66%21.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.744.755.2025.00%21.11%21.05%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV -0.048%
Edge -0.012%
Kelly -0.015%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%23.99%24.00%25.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.873.904.1729.41%25.81%25.64%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 56.39%; Leeds United (Visit): 19.64%; Draw: 23.97%. For Leeds United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.09. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.71%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64%EV +2.12%E +0.408%K +0.505%G +0.011% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -1.73%E -0.421%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-09 19:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.07%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.13%EV +0.157%E +0.031%K +0.038%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.80%EV -1.73%E -0.421%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.07%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.13%EV +0.157%E +0.031%K +0.038%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.80%EV -1.73%E -0.421%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.97%EV -2.44%E -1.41%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.08I 19.69%NM 19.40%EV -0.236%E -0.046%K -0.058%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.63%EV -0.048%E -0.012%K -0.015%G +0.000% | 1.5% | 2026-04-11 00:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.66%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.26%EV -1.81%E -0.361%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -4.12%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-06 22:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -2.79%E -0.563%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 06:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -2.79%E -0.563%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 06:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.87%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.12%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 07:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.87%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.12%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 07:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.87%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.12%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.87%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.12%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.85%EV -6.39%E -3.85%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -3.77%E -0.770%K -0.967%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.80%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.84I 20.66%NM 19.60%EV -4.95%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.60%EV -3.64%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 08:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -1.73%E -0.421%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-13 12:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -1.73%E -0.421%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-13 12:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.86%EV -4.13%E -2.43%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 14:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 14:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.90%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.32%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-06 07:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.87%EV -8.64%E -5.34%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -5.73%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -7.72%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.89%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 14:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.33%EV -6.39%E -3.85%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 22:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-06 22:08 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -8.64%E -5.34%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-06 10:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-07 20:53 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -9.77%E -6.11%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.22%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.71%EV -7.72%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -9.77%E -6.11%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.22%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.71%EV -7.72%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -9.77%E -6.11%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.22%EV -6.72%E -1.41%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.71%EV -7.72%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-06 07:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -7.70%E -1.64%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-06 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.51%EV -7.52%E -4.58%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -7.70%E -1.64%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -6.52%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-08 13:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.47%EV -8.64%E -5.34%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -7.70%E -1.64%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 22:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -7.72%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-13 12:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.31%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.31%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 10:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.31%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -5.82%E -3.49%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.31%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 10:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.10%EV -7.52%E -4.58%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -7.72%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-07 14:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -8.64%E -5.34%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -9.66%E -2.10%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-08 13:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -11.63%E -2.58%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-07 14:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -6.95%E -4.21%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -11.63%E -2.58%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.92%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-08 13:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -8.64%E -5.34%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -14.96%E -3.46%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.71%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-06 22:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -11.46%E -7.30%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.87%EV -14.96%E -3.46%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.31%EV -18.50%E -5.44%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-06 22:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 55.99%EV -13.16%E -8.54%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.05%EV -15.55%E -3.62%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.95%EV -13.71%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-08 13:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 55.77%EV -12.03%E -7.71%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -17.52%E -4.17%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%EV -11.31%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-08 13:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 55.30%EV -14.28%E -9.40%K -27.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.02%EV -21.45%E -5.36%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.68%EV -14.91%E -4.20%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-04-08 13:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.83% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.18% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.1% | 2026-04-09 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.83% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.18% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.1% | 2026-04-09 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.20% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.85% | 2.3% | 2026-04-09 11:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.25% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60% | 3.4% | 2026-04-09 11:30 |