Idioma:Español
Swindon Town v Port Vale
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Swindon Town (Local)
Predicción 29.36%3.41momio equitativo
EV -2.54%
Ventaja -0.765%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.32
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.71%29.35%29.36%30.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.143.153.3233.33%31.84%31.75%30.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Port Vale (Visitante)
Predicción 42.71%2.34momio equitativo
EV -3.90%
Ventaja -1.73%
Kelly -3.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.31%42.71%42.77%44.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.042.152.152.2549.02%46.41%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 27.93%3.58momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -0.639%
Kelly -0.894%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.62%27.94%27.88%28.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.293.253.5031.25%30.38%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Swindon Town (Local): 29.36%; Port Vale (Visitante): 42.71%; Empate: 27.93%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.58. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.50, con un valor esperado de -2.24%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.73%EV -2.54%E -0.765%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.55%EV -6.46%E -2.95%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.72%EV -3.91%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 18:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -4.60%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -3.90%E -1.73%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.60%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.60%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.60%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.60%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 18:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -2.24%E -0.639%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 18:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-01 18:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.06%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-01 18:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.06%EV -5.18%E -2.33%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.06%EV -5.18%E -2.33%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -7.31%E -3.37%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.69%EV -7.31%E -3.37%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.90%EV -7.26%E -2.19%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.18%E -2.33%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -5.18%E -2.33%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -11.16%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 14:43 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.01%EV -8.41%E -2.70%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.62%EV -3.90%E -1.73%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.01%EV -8.41%E -2.70%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.62%EV -3.90%E -1.73%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 18:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -2.24%E -0.639%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -6.43%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-01 18:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-01 18:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -10.30%E -4.91%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -12.44%E -6.07%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-01 18:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.39%EV -11.59%E -5.60%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.00%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -12.01%E -5.83%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -6.43%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-01 18:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -8.17%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-01 18:33 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.67%EV -9.02%E -4.24%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-01 18:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.36%EV -12.87%E -6.31%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.36%EV -12.87%E -6.31%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-01 14:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.80%EV -10.76%E -3.54%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.98%EV -4.75%E -2.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.22%EV -3.91%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.93%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96% | 0.8% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.41% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96% | 0.8% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86% | 1.1% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |