Language:English
Swindon Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swindon Town (Local)
Prediction 31.18%3.21fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.96%31.18%31.18%33.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.1236.36%34.08%33.90%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Milton Keynes Dons (Visit)
Prediction 41.26%2.42fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.40%41.31%41.24%43.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.252.3447.62%44.26%44.44%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.56%3.63fair odd
EV -0.799%
Edge -0.222%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.03%27.51%27.58%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.303.6033.33%29.96%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 31.18%; Milton Keynes Dons (Visit): 41.26%; Draw: 27.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.799%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.96%EV -2.71%E -0.869%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.36%EV -6.75%E -2.99%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.68%EV -10.17%E -3.12%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 14:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -11.29%E -5.25%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.799%E -0.222%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 04:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.89%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 14:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.42%EV -5.21%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.82%EV -3.45%E -1.47%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.76%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.78%EV -5.92%E -2.60%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -0.799%E -0.222%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.78%EV -5.92%E -2.60%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -0.799%E -0.222%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 14:43 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 14:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 14:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 14:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.82%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 14:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.82%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.82%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.82%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.45%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-13 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -7.08%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -5.92%E -2.60%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.69%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -7.08%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -5.92%E -2.60%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.69%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.10%EV -7.08%E -2.37%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.82%EV -6.33%E -2.79%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.31%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -7.69%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 14:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-14 14:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -0.799%E -0.222%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-14 14:38 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.01%EV -8.40%E -3.78%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-14 04:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.57%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -10.20%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -10.20%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-14 14:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.02%EV -10.20%E -3.54%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -13.35%E -6.36%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.82%EV -17.33%E -5.78%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -11.13%E -3.91%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -12.69%E -4.53%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-13 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -14.25%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -14.25%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -14.25%E -5.18%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.07%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-13 14:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.54% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.54% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.54% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.54% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.31% | 0.3% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36% | 1.5% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |