Language:English
Swindon Town v Bristol Rovers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swindon Town (Local)
Prediction 48.31%2.07fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.89%48.28%48.20%49.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.901.912.0054.95%52.61%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bristol Rovers (Visit)
Prediction 25.05%3.99fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -0.799%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.03%25.03%25.09%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.733.753.9029.41%26.83%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.64%3.75fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.69%26.71%27.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.463.503.6132.26%28.94%28.57%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 48.31%; Bristol Rovers (Visit): 25.05%; Draw: 26.64%. For Bristol Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -2.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.38%E -1.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -3.38%E -1.69%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -4.35%E -2.20%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -4.35%E -2.20%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -10.74%E -3.21%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -4.35%E -2.20%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -10.74%E -3.21%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.84%EV -4.07%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.36%EV -3.81%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.32%E -0.594%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.32%E -0.594%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.16%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -5.41%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 09:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 11:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -14.84%E -4.37%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-28 12:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.07%E -3.66%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.80%E -2.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.07%E -3.66%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 11:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.02%EV -6.33%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.51%EV -5.94%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -6.76%E -3.50%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -3.57%E -0.927%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 08:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -7.25%E -3.77%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.41%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 09:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -7.25%E -3.77%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.41%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 09:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -4.08%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.15%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.33%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 08:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 11:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.62%EV -7.73%E -4.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-28 09:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -8.21%E -4.32%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-28 08:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -8.21%E -4.32%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.00%EV -8.70%E -4.60%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.24%EV -4.32%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.76%EV -7.81%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -9.66%E -5.17%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -10.63%E -5.75%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.41%E -2.77%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-28 12:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.75%EV -11.11%E -6.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-26 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-27 21:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -6.74%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-02-28 12:06 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.98%EV -11.59%E -6.34%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.29%EV -14.84%E -4.37%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -17.40%E -5.61%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.68%EV -12.08%E -6.64%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-26 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.68%EV -12.08%E -6.64%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-26 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.68%EV -12.08%E -6.64%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -6.08%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -8.08%E -2.34%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-26 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.41% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.76% | 2.4% | 2026-02-28 12:06 |