Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Swindon Town v Accrington Stanley

Início: 2026-04-18 11:34 UTC

Final: Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington Stanley

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Swindon Town (Local)

Previsão 56.16%1.78odd justa
EV -3.97%
Vantagem -2.32%
Kelly -5.59%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.71

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.92%55.98%56.14%57.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.561.641.641.7164.10%61.00%60.98%58.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Accrington Stanley (Visitante)

Previsão 19.02%5.26odd justa
EV -0.164%
Vantagem -0.031%
Kelly -0.039%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.97%19.17%19.11%21.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.104.844.805.2524.39%20.65%20.83%19.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.83%4.03odd justa
EV -0.699%
Vantagem -0.175%
Kelly -0.233%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.42%24.86%24.74%26.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.713.754.0030.30%26.95%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Swindon Town (Local): 56.16%; Accrington Stanley (Visitante): 19.02%; Empate: 24.83%. Para Accrington Stanley (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.26. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 5.25, com valor esperado de -0.164%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.66%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -16.33%E -3.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 11:30
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -5.87%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 11:30
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.57%EV -9.10%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.75%EV -6.16%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 11:29
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.92%EV -5.65%E -3.37%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -22.03%E -5.37%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -13.11%E -3.75%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.03%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.49%EV -2.07%E -0.401%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.48%EV -3.43%E -0.882%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 11:29
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 11:30
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 11:28
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 11:29
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 11:29
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 11:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -6.78%E -4.08%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -6.78%E -4.08%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:29
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -0.164%E -0.031%K -0.039%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 11:29
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -4.42%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-18 11:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 11:29
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 11:29
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 11:30
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 11:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 11:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 11:29
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -12.52%E -2.72%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -13.11%E -3.75%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-18 11:30
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.05%EV -7.90%E -4.82%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -9.39%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:29
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.03%EV -7.90%E -4.82%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:27
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:26
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.36%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.76%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -10.62%E -2.26%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -9.39%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 11:30
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.48%EV -8.46%E -5.19%K -13.43%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -11.87%E -3.34%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 11:30
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -0.699%E -0.175%K -0.233%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 11:30
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:30
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.73%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -6.82%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:29
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -9.58%E -5.95%K -15.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.08%EV -4.67%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-18 11:30
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -9.58%E -5.95%K -15.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.58%E -5.95%K -15.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 11:30
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.58%E -5.95%K -15.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.58%E -5.95%K -15.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.72%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -10.15%E -6.34%K -16.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -4.92%E -0.984%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:30
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%EV -10.15%E -6.34%K -16.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.15%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 11:30
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -10.15%E -6.34%K -16.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV -9.67%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -9.39%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-18 11:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -11.83%E -7.54%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -14.43%E -3.21%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -18.08%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-18 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.84%EV -12.39%E -7.94%K -22.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.87%EV -10.62%E -2.26%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -9.39%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-18 11:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.67%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-04-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.67%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-04-18 11:30
Matchbook1.68I 59.52%NM 58.49%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.57%1.8%2026-04-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 58.81%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.96%1.8%2026-04-18 11:30
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.10%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.1%2026-04-18 11:30