Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Newport County v Fleetwood Town

Início: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Newport County 1–1 Fleetwood Town

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Newport County (Local)

Previsão 28.67%3.49odd justa
EV -2.53%
Vantagem -0.744%
Kelly -1.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.81%28.75%28.57%30.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.193.203.4032.79%31.32%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fleetwood Town (Visitante)

Previsão 44.47%2.25odd justa
EV -4.38%
Vantagem -2.04%
Kelly -3.81%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.22%44.38%44.56%45.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.002.082.072.1550.00%48.16%48.31%46.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.86%3.72odd justa
EV -3.31%
Vantagem -0.919%
Kelly -1.27%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.53%26.87%26.87%27.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.383.403.6031.25%29.58%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Newport County (Local): 28.67%; Fleetwood Town (Visitante): 44.47%; Empate: 26.86%. Para Newport County (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.49. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.40, com valor esperado de -2.53%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.53%E -0.744%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 15:51
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.96%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.49%E -3.60%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 11:40
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.96%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.49%E -3.60%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 11:39
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 15:51
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.38%E -2.04%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 14:05
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -7.49%E -3.60%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 15:46
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.38%E -2.04%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 08:39
Pinnacle🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.64%EV -6.16%E -2.92%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.38%EV -4.12%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 02:50
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 08:40
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 08:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 08:39
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.13%EV -6.16%E -2.92%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.22%EV -8.14%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 17:15
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -7.12%E -2.20%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.32%EV -7.05%E -3.37%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.09%EV -8.14%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 17:16
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 08:45
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 14:32
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 04:09
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 15:51
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:51
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:51
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 17:29
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 17:15
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 17:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:51
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.97%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 21:30
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -11.05%E -5.53%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 15:51
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -8.26%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.58%EV -10.16%E -5.03%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 11:39
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.84%EV -7.49%E -3.60%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.22%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 23:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:39
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.94%E -3.84%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 04:40
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -8.38%E -4.07%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 04:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-08 04:40
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 10:45
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -6.00%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 08:15
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 07:20
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 07:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 07:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.60%E -3.14%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 07:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.80%EV -10.16%E -5.03%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -14.05%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 04:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.80%EV -10.16%E -5.03%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -14.05%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 04:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -12.56%E -4.12%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -5.71%E -2.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 09:09
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -12.56%E -4.12%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -5.71%E -2.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 09:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%3.9%2026-09-09 17:06
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%3.9%2026-09-09 17:00
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%3.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 28.62%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.38%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.00%4.3%2026-09-09 16:55
Smarkets◎3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%5.2%2026-09-09 17:30