Language:English
Crawley Town v Swindon Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Crawley Town (Local)
Prediction 29.25%3.42fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -0.963%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%29.24%29.26%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.123.3133.33%31.77%32.05%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Swindon Town (Visit)
Prediction 44.83%2.23fair odd
EV -5.85%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -5.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%44.86%44.76%46.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.1052.36%48.69%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.537%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%25.90%25.99%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.533.503.8032.26%28.30%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Crawley Town (Local): 29.25%; Swindon Town (Visit): 44.83%; Draw: 25.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.79%EV -3.19%E -0.963%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.59%EV -6.30%E -3.02%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.62%EV -3.58%E -0.961%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -3.48%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.09%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 14:46 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -7.98%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -7.98%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.94%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -4.09%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.78%EV -5.82%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.03%EV -7.72%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -2.80%E -0.746%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.09%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.09%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -1.50%E -0.395%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.40%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.35%EV -6.70%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.58%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.08%EV -6.95%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 14:33 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -7.87%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -9.44%E -4.67%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.87%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.37%EV -8.16%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.43%EV -8.99%E -4.43%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.20%EV -5.13%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.37%EV -8.16%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.43%EV -8.99%E -4.43%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.20%EV -5.13%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.69%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -7.20%E -3.48%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -8.10%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.57%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -8.54%E -4.19%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -11.87%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -8.54%E -4.19%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -11.87%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-07 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -8.54%E -4.19%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -11.87%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-07 14:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -14.37%E -7.52%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -19.65%E -6.34%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -10.79%E -3.54%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -7.98%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.25%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.28%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.25% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.49% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95% | 1.5% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.47% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.34% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.47% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.34% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.68% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.99% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33% | 2.6% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |