Language:English
Chesterfield FC v Notts County
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chesterfield FC (Local)
Prediction 41.45%2.41fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.39%41.64%41.38%45.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.202.3150.00%46.09%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Notts County (Visit)
Prediction 30.15%3.32fair odd
EV +2.52%
Edge +0.742%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.04%29.96%30.08%31.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.173.103.4034.72%31.59%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.39%3.52fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.19%28.39%28.54%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.303.4033.33%30.39%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chesterfield FC (Local): 41.45%; Notts County (Visit): 30.15%; Draw: 28.39%. For Notts County (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -15.44%E -7.57%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 08:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -15.44%E -7.57%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -16.27%E -8.05%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV +2.52%E +0.742%K +1.05%G +0.027% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -17.10%E -8.55%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV +1.02%E +0.303%K +0.433%G +0.004% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 08:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -17.10%E -8.55%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV +1.02%E +0.303%K +0.433%G +0.004% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 08:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.58%EV -17.10%E -8.55%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV +1.02%E +0.303%K +0.433%G +0.004% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 08:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.00%E -0.615%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.51%E -1.10%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 13:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.51%E -1.10%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -11.41%E -3.66%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 13:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.28%EV -4.25%E -1.84%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.08%EV -4.41%E -1.39%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.64%EV -5.44%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.44%EV -6.32%E -2.80%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -5.01%E -1.59%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.44%EV -6.32%E -2.80%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -5.01%E -1.59%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.26%EV -5.91%E -2.60%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.92%EV -5.62%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.43%EV -6.74%E -2.99%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -5.92%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 08:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.74%E -2.99%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -10.88%E -5.06%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -10.88%E -5.06%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.88%E -5.06%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.52%E -2.10%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.03%E -2.63%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.83%EV -5.49%E -2.41%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.03%E -2.63%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.83%EV -5.49%E -2.41%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.03%E -2.63%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -8.03%E -2.63%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -8.03%E -2.63%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 08:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -8.03%E -2.63%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.74%E -2.99%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-10 08:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -8.81%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.88%E -5.06%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.54%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-10 08:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -12.95%E -6.17%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.02%EV -13.16%E -4.57%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.82%EV -14.82%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-05-10 13:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.65% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68% | 1.1% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.96% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.96% | 1.6% | 2026-05-10 13:05 |