Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Accrington Stanley v Crawley Town

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Accrington Stanley (Local)

Prediction 44.17%2.26fair odd
EV -5.03%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -4.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.62%44.19%44.15%45.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.1550.00%47.95%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crawley Town (Visit)

Prediction 28.36%3.53fair odd
EV -6.40%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%28.31%28.37%28.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.273.3032.26%30.72%30.58%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.46%3.64fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%27.51%27.48%28.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.353.353.5030.77%29.87%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Accrington Stanley (Local): 44.17%; Crawley Town (Visit): 28.36%; Draw: 27.46%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -3.88%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.88%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.63%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 17:00
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -6.35%E -3.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.63%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 17:00
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.95%EV -6.35%E -3.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.49%EV -7.25%E -2.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.56%EV -7.18%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.82%E -2.40%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -6.63%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.14%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.43%EV -7.53%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.42%EV -7.18%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 18:40
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.75%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 17:39
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.23%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.00%E -2.39%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 17:00
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.82%E -2.40%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.75%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 17:39
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.85%EV -8.12%E -3.90%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.23%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -9.38%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.09%EV -9.00%E -4.37%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -9.23%E -2.89%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.38%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 17:00
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.44%E -4.61%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.63%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 17:34
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -9.44%E -4.61%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.00%E -2.39%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 17:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.65%E -5.83%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.38%E -2.84%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -11.65%E -5.83%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -12.07%E -3.89%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -10.75%E -3.31%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-29 17:02
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-29 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-29 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-29 17:30