Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Accrington Stanley v Crawley Town

Início: 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Final: Accrington Stanley 3–2 Crawley Town

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Accrington Stanley (Local)

Previsão 46.52%2.15odd justa
EV -4.16%
Vantagem -2.02%
Kelly -3.92%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.06

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.21%46.47%46.60%47.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.912.012.002.0652.36%49.86%50.00%48.54%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Crawley Town (Visitante)

Previsão 27.07%3.69odd justa
EV -3.90%
Vantagem -1.10%
Kelly -1.53%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.22%27.13%27.09%28.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.383.403.5531.25%29.62%29.41%28.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.40%3.79odd justa
EV +0.339%
Vantagem +0.089%
Kelly +0.121%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.57%26.41%26.31%27.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.483.483.8030.30%28.70%28.74%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Accrington Stanley (Local): 46.52%; Crawley Town (Visitante): 27.07%; Empate: 26.40%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.79. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.339%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -12.02%E -3.70%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV +0.339%E +0.089%K +0.121%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -4.63%E -2.26%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.30%E -0.622%K -0.852%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 11:35
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.94%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -0.992%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 14:15
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -3.90%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.63%E -2.26%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 05:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.63%E -2.26%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 20:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.63%E -2.26%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 14:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.63%E -2.26%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 20:40
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 14:04
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 14:03
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.89%EV -5.56%E -2.74%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 12:50
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 14:55
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -9.28%E -4.76%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.97%EV -7.42%E -3.73%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.97%EV -7.42%E -3.73%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 00:30
Neds🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 14:55
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 12:55
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -10.21%E -5.29%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.25%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 20:34
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.28%E -4.76%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 14:53
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.28%E -4.76%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 14:55
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.33%EV -6.49%E -3.23%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.91%EV -6.33%E -1.83%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.76%EV -8.11%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 12:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.54%EV -7.42%E -3.73%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -6.61%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.61%EV -8.11%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 13:30
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:25
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:24
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -4.16%E -2.02%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:25
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%EV -7.88%E -3.98%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.61%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.56%EV -7.88%E -3.98%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -6.61%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 14:25
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.96%E -2.34%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 21:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -8.35%E -4.24%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -9.31%E -2.78%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 00:35
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.82%EV -7.88%E -3.98%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 14:10
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.28%E -4.76%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-01 20:55
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -11.14%E -5.83%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 14:59
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.39%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -11.54%E -3.45%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 21:25
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 13:04
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 13:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -6.95%E -3.48%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.67%E -3.23%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 13:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.39%EV -8.35%E -4.24%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.02%E -3.70%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-02 21:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -8.81%E -4.50%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -13.37%E -4.18%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-02 21:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.32%EV -8.81%E -4.50%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -13.37%E -4.18%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.86%E -3.90%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-02 21:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.99%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%3.6%2026-09-04 14:15
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.08%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%5.6%2026-09-04 14:05