Language:English
Stevenage v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stevenage (Local)
Prediction 30.94%3.23fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.455%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.92%30.96%30.92%32.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.963.003.2036.36%33.84%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 41.62%2.40fair odd
EV -0.951%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.689%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.14%41.60%41.63%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.252.3846.51%44.42%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.44%27.44%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.353.5331.25%29.84%29.85%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stevenage (Local): 30.94%; Luton (Visit): 41.62%; Draw: 27.45%. For Luton (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -0.951%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -1.00%E -0.313%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -10.52%E -4.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 11:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 19:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 19:03 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 08:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 08:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-07 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 19:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-08 07:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 08:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.31%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 03:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 03:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.26%EV -6.26%E -2.07%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.91%EV -5.94%E -2.63%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.83%EV -3.12%E -0.883%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 23:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.02%EV -6.57%E -2.18%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.27%EV -5.53%E -2.44%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.71%EV -7.23%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -6.57%E -2.18%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -7.23%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-07 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-07 01:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 06:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 17:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 16:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-07 19:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-08 20:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-08 19:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 10:47 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 10:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.85%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 41.56%EV -8.86%E -4.04%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-07 22:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 09:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-08 06:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-08 06:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-08 06:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.52%E -4.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -10.90%E -3.79%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-07 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.90%E -3.79%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -10.52%E -4.89%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.17%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.17%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-08 09:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73% | 1.6% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61% | 2.0% | 2026-09-09 16:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61% | 2.0% | 2026-09-09 16:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61% | 2.0% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.09% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66% | 3.3% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |