Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Stevenage v Luton

Início: 2026-09-10 19:00 UTC

Final: Stevenage 2–1 Luton

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Stevenage (Local)

Previsão 30.94%3.23odd justa
EV -1.00%
Vantagem -0.313%
Kelly -0.455%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.92%30.96%30.92%32.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.963.003.2036.36%33.84%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Luton (Visitante)

Previsão 41.62%2.40odd justa
EV -0.951%
Vantagem -0.400%
Kelly -0.689%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.38

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.14%41.60%41.63%43.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.252.252.3846.51%44.42%44.44%42.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.45%3.64odd justa
EV -3.12%
Vantagem -0.883%
Kelly -1.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.53

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.52%27.44%27.44%28.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.353.353.5331.25%29.84%29.85%28.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Stevenage (Local): 30.94%; Luton (Visitante): 41.62%; Empate: 27.45%. Para Luton (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.40. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.38, com valor esperado de -0.951%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -1.00%E -0.313%K -0.455%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -10.52%E -4.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 11:15
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 19:00
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 19:03
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 08:40
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 08:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 19:05
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 17:45
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 07:40
Neds🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 08:40
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.31%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 03:05
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 03:05
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.26%EV -6.26%E -2.07%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.91%EV -5.94%E -2.63%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.83%EV -3.12%E -0.883%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 23:20
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.02%EV -6.57%E -2.18%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.27%EV -5.53%E -2.44%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.71%EV -7.23%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -6.57%E -2.18%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -7.23%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 12:30
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 22:15
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 01:04
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 06:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 16:59
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 19:04
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-05 23:05
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 20:10
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 19:04
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 17:45
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 10:47
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 10:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.85%EV -8.74%E -2.96%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.56%EV -8.86%E -4.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 22:15
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 09:05
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 06:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 06:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.44%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-08 06:05
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.52%E -4.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-07 17:45
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -10.90%E -3.79%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.36%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-07 17:45
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.90%E -3.79%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -10.52%E -4.89%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.68%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 13:00
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -0.951%E -0.400%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 09:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 09:30
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 09:30
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 09:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.80%E -3.32%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 09:30
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.17%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 09:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -14.92%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.17%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 09:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61%2.0%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61%2.0%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61%2.0%2026-09-09 17:16
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%3.3%2026-09-09 17:40