Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Reading v Luton

Início: 2026-08-15 11:30 UTC

Final: Reading 3–4 Luton

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Reading (Local)

Previsão 31.96%3.13odd justa
EV +3.86%
Vantagem +1.19%
Kelly +1.72%
Crescimento +0.066%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.84%31.80%31.99%32.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.802.952.913.2535.71%33.95%34.36%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Luton (Visitante)

Previsão 40.85%2.45odd justa
EV -2.79%
Vantagem -1.17%
Kelly -2.02%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.38

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.49%41.02%40.84%43.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.38%44.44%42.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.20%3.68odd justa
EV -1.00%
Vantagem -0.276%
Kelly -0.380%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.64

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.03%27.18%27.17%28.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.153.383.403.6431.75%29.60%29.41%27.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Reading (Local): 31.96%; Luton (Visitante): 40.85%; Empate: 27.20%. Para Reading (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.13. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.86%.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV +3.86%E +1.19%K +1.72%G +0.066%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-10 11:35
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:14
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -2.53%E -0.829%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 11:20
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 11:19
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 11:19
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 11:23
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.09%E -0.581%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 11:15
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 11:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:19
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.61%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 11:14
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.61%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 11:15
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -12.59%E -5.88%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -12.97%E -4.05%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -12.59%E -5.88%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -12.97%E -4.05%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 11:14
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.62%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.44%EV -1.00%E -0.276%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 11:25
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:19
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.04%EV -14.22%E -6.77%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -14.33%E -4.55%K -6.66%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-15 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.04%EV -14.22%E -6.77%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -14.33%E -4.55%K -6.66%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-15 11:14
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.15%EV -7.00%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.50%EV -5.65%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.35%EV -6.99%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.03%EV -7.00%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.71%EV -6.46%E -2.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -6.99%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 11:24
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -3.45%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 11:14
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -2.09%E -0.581%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 11:15
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 11:25
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:15
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:15
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:13
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:20
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.01%EV -9.32%E -4.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 11:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -7.96%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 11:24
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.96%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:20
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -7.96%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -8.60%E -3.01%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.49%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 11:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -8.60%E -3.01%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.49%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 11:15
BetUS🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -8.60%E -3.01%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.49%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -8.92%E -3.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:24
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.92%E -3.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.92%E -3.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 11:14
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:24
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:24
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:24
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 11:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.26%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.41%-0.0%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-15 11:25
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-08-15 11:25