Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Reading v Luton

Inicio: 2026-08-15 11:30 UTC

Final: Reading 3–4 Luton

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Reading (Local)

Predicción 31.96%3.13momio equitativo
EV +3.86%
Ventaja +1.19%
Kelly +1.72%
Crecimiento +0.066%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.84%31.80%31.99%32.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.952.913.2535.71%33.95%34.36%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Luton (Visitante)

Predicción 40.85%2.45momio equitativo
EV -2.79%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -2.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.49%41.02%40.84%43.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.38%44.44%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.20%3.68momio equitativo
EV -1.00%
Ventaja -0.276%
Kelly -0.380%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.03%27.18%27.17%28.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.383.403.6431.75%29.60%29.41%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Reading (Local): 31.96%; Luton (Visitante): 40.85%; Empate: 27.20%. Para Reading (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.13. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.86%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV +3.86%E +1.19%K +1.72%G +0.066%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-10 11:35
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:15
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -0.932%E -0.301%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -8.91%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.89%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:14
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -2.53%E -0.829%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 11:20
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 11:19
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 11:19
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 11:23
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.09%E -0.581%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 11:15
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 11:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:19
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.61%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 11:14
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.61%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 11:15
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -12.59%E -5.88%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -12.97%E -4.05%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -12.59%E -5.88%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -12.97%E -4.05%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 11:14
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.62%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.44%EV -1.00%E -0.276%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 11:25
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:19
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.04%EV -14.22%E -6.77%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -14.33%E -4.55%K -6.66%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-15 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -5.73%E -1.94%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.04%EV -14.22%E -6.77%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -14.33%E -4.55%K -6.66%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-15 11:14
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.15%EV -7.00%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.50%EV -5.65%E -2.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.35%EV -6.99%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.03%EV -7.00%E -2.41%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.71%EV -6.46%E -2.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -6.99%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 11:24
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -3.45%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 11:14
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -2.09%E -0.581%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 11:15
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 11:25
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:15
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:15
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:13
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:20
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -7.32%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.01%EV -9.32%E -4.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 11:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -7.96%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.81%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 11:24
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.96%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:20
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -7.96%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -12.18%E -5.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -8.60%E -3.01%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.49%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 11:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -8.60%E -3.01%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.49%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 11:15
BetUS🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -8.60%E -3.01%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.49%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -8.92%E -3.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:24
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.92%E -3.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.92%E -3.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 11:14
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:24
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:24
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -6.06%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.25%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 11:24
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.52%E -3.76%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.53%E -2.21%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 11:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.26%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.41%-0.0%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-15 11:25
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-08-15 11:25