Language:English
Port Vale v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Vale (Local)
Prediction 30.90%3.24fair odd
EV +8.16%
Edge +2.33%
Kelly +3.26%
Growth +0.266%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%30.74%31.04%32.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.053.003.5035.71%32.76%33.33%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 40.49%2.47fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.16%40.66%40.36%45.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.272.282.3852.36%44.11%43.86%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.60%3.50fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.550%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.61%28.59%29.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.203.4333.33%30.99%31.25%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 30.90%; Luton (Visit): 40.49%; Draw: 28.60%. For Port Vale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV +8.16%E +2.33%K +3.26%G +0.266% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -14.97%E -7.13%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 05:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV +5.07%E +1.49%K +2.11%G +0.107% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.49%EV -22.66%E -11.86%K -24.90%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-02-27 11:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -16.99%E -8.29%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -2.74%E -0.807%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 15:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.71%EV +0.126%E +0.039%K +0.056%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%EV -7.68%E -3.37%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.07%EV -1.89%E -0.550%K -0.776%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-28 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.68%E -3.37%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.68%E -3.37%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.68%E -3.37%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 14:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.99%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.27%EV -4.03%E -1.70%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.75%EV -5.03%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.99%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.27%EV -4.03%E -1.70%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.75%EV -5.03%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.71%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.90%EV -7.27%E -3.18%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.90%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.90%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -6.05%E -1.99%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.07%EV -8.08%E -3.56%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.24%EV -4.84%E -2.06%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -4.17%E -1.25%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -4.03%E -1.70%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -4.03%E -1.70%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 14:16 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -9.90%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.33%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-28 14:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.33%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 14:16 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.33%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.33%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.33%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -7.91%E -2.65%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -7.68%E -3.37%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -4.17%E -1.25%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -7.91%E -2.65%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -7.68%E -3.37%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -4.17%E -1.25%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -4.84%E -2.06%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -4.84%E -2.06%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -3.63%E -1.52%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 14:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.87%E -2.99%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-28 14:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -10.92%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -7.04%E -2.16%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.06%E -2.61%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84% | 1.6% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.18% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.18% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.18% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.18% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 14:15 |