Language:English
Luton v Notts County
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 61.78%1.62fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -5.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.40%61.65%61.76%63.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.501.5768.97%66.32%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Notts County (Visit)
Prediction 16.32%6.13fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +0.399%
Kelly +0.475%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 6.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.81%16.34%16.40%18.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.665.506.2820.00%17.66%18.18%15.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.90%4.57fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.325%
Kelly -0.418%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.75%22.01%21.84%23.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.184.204.5025.97%23.93%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 61.78%; Notts County (Visit): 16.32%; Draw: 21.90%. For Notts County (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.13. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.42%EV -6.71%E -4.45%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 6.28I 15.92%NM 15.25%EV +2.51%E +0.399%K +0.475%G +0.012% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.33%EV -1.68%E -0.374%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV +1.20%E +0.194%K +0.231%G +0.003% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.84%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV +1.20%E +0.194%K +0.231%G +0.003% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.84%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%EV +1.20%E +0.194%K +0.231%G +0.003% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.84%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-22 11:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -10.42%E -7.19%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.81%EV +1.20%E +0.194%K +0.231%G +0.003% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-22 11:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.62%EV -7.95%E -5.33%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -1.25%E -0.206%K -0.247%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -5.48%E -3.58%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.70%EV -6.71%E -4.45%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -3.65%E -0.830%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 11:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.48%E -3.58%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.48%E -3.58%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 11:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 11:13 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.01%EV -7.95%E -5.33%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.06%E -0.344%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -3.65%E -0.830%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -3.69%E -0.626%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -15.70%E -4.08%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -3.69%E -0.626%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -15.70%E -4.08%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.86%EV -6.71%E -4.45%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -5.33%E -0.918%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.03%EV -7.16%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.97%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -4.75%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -5.84%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.12%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -5.84%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 11:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.08%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-22 11:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -6.14%E -1.07%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -1.46%E -0.325%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -1.46%E -0.325%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -5.48%E -3.58%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-22 11:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -5.48%E -3.58%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-22 11:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -6.71%E -4.45%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.02%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.59%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.39%EV -14.60%E -3.74%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-22 11:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.83%EV -9.18%E -6.25%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-22 11:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.85%EV -7.95%E -5.33%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.85%EV -7.95%E -5.33%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 11:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.85%EV -7.95%E -5.33%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.84%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -13.51%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.84%EV -8.57%E -5.79%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -10.22%E -1.86%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -13.51%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-22 11:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.17%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -11.86%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 11:18 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.00%EV -7.95%E -5.33%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -11.86%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-22 11:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.18%EV -3.01%E -1.91%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -14.30%E -2.72%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 11:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -3.01%E -1.91%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 11:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -3.01%E -1.91%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -5.18%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 11:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -3.01%E -1.91%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 11:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -3.01%E -1.91%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 11:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.33%E -4.89%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -18.39%E -3.68%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -8.03%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-22 11:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.90% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.75% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.35% | -0.3% | 2026-08-22 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.76% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.16% | 0.5% | 2026-08-22 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.91% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-08-22 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.91% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-08-22 11:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.03% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.71% | 2.4% | 2026-08-22 11:25 |