Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luton v Leyton Orient

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC — League 1

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luton (Local)

Prediction 57.51%1.74fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -3.10%
Kelly -7.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.95%57.38%57.41%58.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.621.6564.52%61.95%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leyton Orient (Visit)

Prediction 19.18%5.21fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -0.818%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.54%19.13%19.35%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.824.755.0021.74%20.76%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.502%
Kelly -0.659%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.56%23.49%23.25%24.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.944.004.2026.67%25.35%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Luton (Local): 57.51%; Leyton Orient (Visit): 19.18%; Draw: 23.31%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.20, with an expected value of -2.11%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.75%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.55%EV -8.12%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -7.94%E -2.01%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:05
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -7.93%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -12.60%E -3.36%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 19:00
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -12.60%E -3.36%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -12.60%E -3.36%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -12.60%E -3.36%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.18%EV -6.26%E -3.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -6.97%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.94%E -2.01%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -6.83%E -4.22%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -2.11%E -0.502%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -6.83%E -4.22%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.44%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -6.83%E -4.22%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 17:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -7.41%E -4.60%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 17:15
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.44%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 17:14
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 17:15
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.05%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.76%E -2.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -7.94%E -2.01%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 17:15
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.29%EV -8.56%E -5.38%K -14.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -4.09%E -0.818%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 17:43
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.88%EV -9.13%E -5.78%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 17:14
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -9.71%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -8.88%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 17:39
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.31%EV -10.86%E -7.01%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -11.76%E -2.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -11.43%E -3.01%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-29 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-29 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-29 17:40