Language:English
Cardiff City v Northampton Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cardiff City (Local)
Prediction 80.22%1.25fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -13.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.84%80.20%80.21%82.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2189.29%85.61%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Northampton Town (Visit)
Prediction 7.04%14.21fair odd
EV +19.64%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.241%
assuming max odds 17.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.50%6.97%7.09%8.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.0613.0017.009.09%7.66%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.74%7.85fair odd
EV +1.91%
Edge +0.239%
Kelly +0.273%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.67%12.83%12.70%15.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.977.008.0016.67%14.35%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cardiff City (Local): 80.22%; Northampton Town (Visit): 7.04%; Draw: 12.74%. For Northampton Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.21. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.80%EV -9.35%E -8.27%K -71.90%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +19.64%E +1.16%K +1.23%G +0.241% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.91%E +0.239%K +0.273%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 14:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +16.12%E +0.977%K +1.04%G +0.168% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -18.47%E -2.89%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-20 15:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +16.12%E +0.977%K +1.04%G +0.168% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -18.47%E -2.89%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-20 15:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +5.56%E +0.371%K +0.397%G +0.022% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 06:18 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +5.56%E +0.371%K +0.397%G +0.022% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -4.46%E -0.595%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.90%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +5.56%E +0.371%K +0.397%G +0.022% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -20.38%E -3.26%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 22:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +5.56%E +0.371%K +0.397%G +0.022% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 06:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +5.56%E +0.371%K +0.397%G +0.022% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -23.57%E -3.93%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 22:41 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.56%EV +0.282%E +0.020%K +0.021%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.14%EV -1.91%E -0.248%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 02:13 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.28%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 14.20I 7.04%NM 6.58%EV -0.070%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.14%EV -1.91%E -0.248%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 02:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -9.35%E -8.27%K -71.90%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -1.48%E -0.106%K -0.114%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -4.46%E -0.595%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 08:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.92%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 13.54I 7.39%NM 6.87%EV -4.71%E -0.348%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 7.62I 13.12%NM 12.21%EV -2.93%E -0.385%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 02:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.76%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +1.91%E +0.239%K +0.273%G +0.005% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 06:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 06:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 08:13 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.15%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +1.91%E +0.239%K +0.273%G +0.005% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 08:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 23:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 23:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 23:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 23:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.16%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -14.01%E -2.08%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 06:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-24 02:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 18:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.83%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -8.54%E -7.50%K -61.03%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.65%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-24 01:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -8.54%E -7.50%K -61.03%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.65%E -1.05%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-24 01:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -9.35%E -8.27%K -71.90%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV -8.51%E -0.655%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.62%EV -8.28%E -1.15%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.37%EV -2.93%E -2.42%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.59%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -14.01%E -2.08%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.37%EV -2.93%E -2.42%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.59%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -14.01%E -2.08%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -2.93%E -2.42%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -4.53%E -3.81%K -23.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV -12.03%E -0.963%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 12:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV +1.91%E +0.239%K +0.273%G +0.005% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 06:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.96%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -1.28%E -0.165%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 06:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.91%EV -6.94%E -5.98%K -43.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.46%E -0.595%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.96%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -18.47%E -2.89%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.96%EV -5.34%E -4.52%K -29.64%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -18.47%E -2.89%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 06:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 06:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -20.38%E -3.26%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -20.38%E -3.26%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.01%EV -10.15%E -9.06%K -84.57%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.37%EV -15.55%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.61%EV -17.20%E -2.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-24 03:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.38%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -19.07%E -1.66%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.68%EV -8.28%E -1.15%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-24 03:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.38%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.62%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -19.07%E -1.66%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.68%EV -8.28%E -1.15%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -22.59%E -2.05%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.46%E -0.595%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 06:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.14%E -5.25%K -36.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -22.59%E -2.05%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -4.46%E -0.595%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 06:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.78% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.85% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.37% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.78% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.85% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.37% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.78% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.85% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.37% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.38% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.65% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.98% | 4.1% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.75% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.48% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 02:25 |