Gillingham v Luton

2026-08-08 16:00 — EFL Cup

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Gillingham (Local)

Odds

3.7027.03%Min

3.7826.43%Mean

3.7027.03%Median

4.0025.00%Max

Consensus probabilities

23.27%4.297Min

24.36%4.105Max

23.95%4.176Mean

24.10%4.149Median

24.10%4.149IQM

23.89%4.186Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.00 under the IQM model: 24.10%

EV -3.58%Edge -0.895%Kelly -1.19%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Luton (Visit)

Odds

1.8055.56%Min

1.8354.64%Mean

1.8254.95%Median

1.8853.19%Max

Consensus probabilities

49.52%2.019Min

50.87%1.966Max

49.97%2.001Mean

49.80%2.008Median

49.80%2.008IQM

50.05%1.998Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.88 under the IQM model: 49.80%

EV -6.37%Edge -3.39%Kelly -7.24%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.4029.41%Min

3.5028.60%Mean

3.4528.99%Median

3.6027.78%Max

Consensus probabilities

25.55%3.915Min

26.39%3.789Max

26.08%3.834Mean

26.09%3.833Median

26.09%3.833IQM

26.06%3.838Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.60 under the IQM model: 26.09%

EV -6.07%Edge -1.69%Kelly -2.33%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Gillingham (Local) ▼	Luton (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
Betr (AU)	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.59%EV -3.58% E -0.895% K -1.19% G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19% NM 50.20%EV -6.37% E -3.39% K -7.24% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.21%EV -6.07% E -1.69% K -2.33% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-30 02:59
SportsBet	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.40%EV -3.58% E -0.895% K -1.19% G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05% NM 50.60%EV -7.86% E -4.25% K -9.25% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.00%EV -6.07% E -1.69% K -2.33% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.40%EV -3.58% E -0.895% K -1.19% G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05% NM 50.60%EV -7.86% E -4.25% K -9.25% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.00%EV -6.07% E -1.69% K -2.33% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.40%EV -3.58% E -0.895% K -1.19% G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05% NM 50.60%EV -7.86% E -4.25% K -9.25% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.00%EV -6.07% E -1.69% K -2.33% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-26 14:29
FanDuel	4.00I 25.00% NM 23.27%EV -3.58% E -0.895% K -1.19% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 50.87%EV -8.86% E -4.84% K -10.67% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.86%EV -6.07% E -1.69% K -2.33% G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-26 14:39
1xBet	3.94I 25.38% NM 23.78%EV -5.03% E -1.28% K -1.71% G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19% NM 49.83%EV -6.37% E -3.39% K -7.24% G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17% NM 26.39%EV -7.38% E -2.08% K -2.89% G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-30 13:09
LeoVegas	3.80I 26.32% NM 24.20%EV -8.40% E -2.21% K -3.00% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 50.25%EV -8.86% E -4.84% K -10.67% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -6.07% E -1.69% K -2.33% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-02 10:20
William Hill	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.27%EV -9.61% E -2.56% K -3.49% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 49.73%EV -8.86% E -4.84% K -10.67% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.00%EV -8.68% E -2.48% K -3.47% G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-06-30 14:00
888sport	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.27%EV -9.61% E -2.56% K -3.49% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 49.73%EV -8.86% E -4.84% K -10.67% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.00%EV -8.68% E -2.48% K -3.47% G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.27%EV -9.61% E -2.56% K -3.49% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 49.73%EV -8.86% E -4.84% K -10.67% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.00%EV -8.68% E -2.48% K -3.47% G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)	3.75I 26.67% NM 24.27%EV -9.61% E -2.56% K -3.49% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 49.73%EV -8.86% E -4.84% K -10.67% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.00%EV -8.68% E -2.48% K -3.47% G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-06-30 14:19
BoyleSports	3.75I 26.67% NM 23.89%EV -9.61% E -2.56% K -3.49% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 49.77%EV -10.35% E -5.75% K -12.94% G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41% NM 26.35%EV -11.29% E -3.32% K -4.70% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-27 15:10
BetRivers	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet	3.70I 27.03% NM 24.36%EV -10.81% E -2.92% K -4.00% G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95% NM 49.52%EV -9.36% E -5.14% K -11.41% G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99% NM 26.12%EV -9.98% E -2.89% K -4.08% G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-06-30 08:39
Coolbet	1.00I 100.00% NM 33.33%EV -75.90% E -75.90% K +0.000% G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00% NM 33.33%EV -50.20% E -50.20% K +0.000% G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00% NM 33.33%EV -73.91% E -73.91% K +0.000% G +0.000%	200.0%	2026-06-26 11:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Gillingham (Local)	Luton (Visit)	Draw	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.04I 96.15%	1.04I 96.15%	1.02I 98.04%	190.3%	2026-06-26 15:39