The School of Odds

Gillingham v Luton

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Gillingham (Local)

Prediction 20.80%4.81fair odd
EV -0.176%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.046%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.47%20.94%20.75%24.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.704.224.404.8027%24%23%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Luton (Visit)

Prediction 53.92%1.85fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.52%53.73%54.01%55.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.581.731.721.8263%58%58%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.52%25.33%25.23%26.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.593.583.8029%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -0.176%E -0.037%K -0.046%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -8.87%E -5.25%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-21 19:20
FanDuel4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -0.176%E -0.037%K -0.046%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 19:20
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -1.22%E -0.256%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 19:20
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -1.22%E -0.256%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 19:20
Betr (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -2.26%E -0.480%K -0.610%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -7.26%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 19:20
Tipico (DE)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -2.26%E -0.480%K -0.610%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 19:05
Pinnacle4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -3.30%E -0.709%K -0.903%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.57%EV -7.80%E -4.56%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.36%EV -6.96%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 14:09
BetMGM4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -4.33%E -0.942%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-22 02:39
Coral4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -4.33%E -0.942%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -4.33%E -0.942%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 21:55
betano_uk4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -4.33%E -0.942%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 09:43
Bet Victor4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -4.33%E -0.942%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 09:44
Ladbrokes (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.41%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -7.26%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 21:55
Neds4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.41%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -7.26%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 21:55
William Hill4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.41%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.64%E -3.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 19:20
Marathon Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -6.41%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.21%EV -7.26%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -5.95%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 07:49
LeoVegas4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -6.41%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-25 09:05
1xBet4.46I 22.42%NM 21.00%EV -7.25%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.82%EV -6.18%E -3.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.18%EV -5.95%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-14 07:49
NordicBet4.45I 22.47%NM 20.66%EV -7.45%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -7.26%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -10.25%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 12:40
Betsson4.45I 22.47%NM 20.66%EV -7.45%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -7.26%E -4.22%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -10.25%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 12:39
Bovada4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.49%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 14:32
888sport4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -8.49%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 19:20
888sport (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -8.49%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 19:50
Mr Green (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -8.49%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -6.72%E -3.88%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 19:50
Unibet (UK)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -9.53%E -2.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 14:30
Betway4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -12.65%E -3.01%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-23 14:35
BoyleSports4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -12.65%E -3.01%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-10 22:15
NetBet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -12.65%E -3.01%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.10%EV -12.65%E -7.81%K -20.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-22 13:34
LowVig.ag4.05I 24.69%NM 22.12%EV -15.77%E -3.89%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.00%EV -8.87%E -5.25%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-13 17:30
BetOnline.ag4.05I 24.69%NM 22.12%EV -15.77%E -3.89%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.00%EV -8.87%E -5.25%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-13 17:30
Winamax (DE)4.00I 25.00%NM 21.76%EV -16.81%E -4.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.72%EV -12.65%E -7.81%K -20.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.52%EV -10.25%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-22 15:39
Winamax (FR)3.85I 25.97%NM 21.89%EV -19.93%E -5.18%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 53.33%EV -14.81%E -9.37%K -25.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.78%EV -14.04%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-22 15:39
BetRivers3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -23.05%E -6.23%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.52%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-16 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%6.6%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%6.6%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 36.39%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.80%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.80%164.2%2026-07-25 16:00