Language:English
Gillingham v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gillingham (Local)
Prediction 18.92%5.28fair odd
EV +5.98%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.078%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.70%18.73%18.85%19.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.884.805.6022.22%20.48%20.83%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 57.56%1.74fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -6.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.60%57.64%57.58%59.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.611.6665.36%61.97%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.52%4.25fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.384%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.48%23.63%23.57%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.843.804.2028.17%26.03%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gillingham (Local): 18.92%; Luton (Visit): 57.56%; Draw: 23.52%. For Gillingham (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.98%E +1.07%K +1.30%G +0.078% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -10.21%E -6.54%K -18.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV +4.08%E +0.743%K +0.908%G +0.037% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -9.06%E -5.73%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV +4.08%E +0.743%K +0.908%G +0.037% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -10.78%E -6.96%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -8.28%E -2.12%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -0.647%E -0.123%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.58%E -0.873%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 13:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -0.647%E -0.123%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.58%E -0.873%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -1.59%E -0.306%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.56%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.20%EV -3.82%E -0.933%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -1.23%E -0.292%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.58%E -0.873%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -8.28%E -2.12%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 13:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 13:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 13:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.11%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 13:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -11.94%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -8.28%E -2.12%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -11.94%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -10.63%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-08 13:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -5.38%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.34%EV -11.94%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -11.81%E -3.15%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.73%EV -6.32%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.20%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-08 13:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.73%EV -6.32%E -1.28%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.20%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-08 13:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.45%E -2.68%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -11.81%E -3.15%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -10.63%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -10.63%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -10.63%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -10.63%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -9.16%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.28%EV -9.63%E -6.14%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.81%E -3.15%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-08 13:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.51%EV -9.35%E -1.95%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.35%EV -6.18%E -3.79%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.14%EV -4.99%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 13:53 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.42%EV -10.11%E -2.13%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.93%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -8.28%E -2.12%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 13:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -10.11%E -2.13%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.93%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -10.11%E -2.13%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -11.81%E -3.15%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -10.11%E -2.13%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV -11.06%E -2.35%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.64%EV -6.76%E -4.17%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.46%E -2.46%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%EV -11.06%E -2.35%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.86%EV -11.94%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -10.63%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -12.95%E -2.81%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.05%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -7.11%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-08 13:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -12.95%E -2.81%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.60%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -16.51%E -4.65%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -12.95%E -2.81%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.60%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -16.51%E -4.65%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -12.95%E -2.81%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.60%EV -7.91%E -4.94%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -16.51%E -4.65%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.97%EV -13.89%E -3.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.43%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -9.46%E -2.46%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.97%EV -13.89%E -3.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.43%EV -7.33%E -4.55%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -9.46%E -2.46%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -14.84%E -3.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -10.21%E -6.54%K -18.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.13%EV -9.46%E -2.46%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 13:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.64% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.14% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.22% | 0.2% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.29% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.