The School of Odds

Fleetwood Town v Chesterfield FC

2026-08-08 16:00 — EFL Cup

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Fleetwood Town (Local)

Odds
2.5040.00%Min
2.6038.48%Mean
2.6038.46%Median
2.7037.04%Max
Consensus probabilities
34.27%2.918Min
36.01%2.777Max
34.94%2.862Mean
34.75%2.878Median
34.75%2.878IQM
34.94%2.862Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.70 under the IQM model: 34.75%

EV -6.18%Edge -2.29%Kelly -3.64%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Chesterfield FC (Visit)

Odds
2.3043.48%Min
2.3842.07%Mean
2.3542.55%Median
2.5040.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
37.51%2.666Min
38.74%2.582Max
38.25%2.615Mean
38.37%2.606Median
38.37%2.606IQM
38.25%2.614Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 38.37%

EV -4.08%Edge -1.63%Kelly -2.72%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.3030.30%Min
3.3929.46%Mean
3.3529.85%Median
3.5028.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.36%3.794Min
27.05%3.696Max
26.81%3.730Mean
26.89%3.719Median
26.89%3.719IQM
26.81%3.729Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 26.89%

EV -5.90%Edge -1.69%Kelly -2.36%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFleetwood Town (Local) ▼Chesterfield FC (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.75I 36.36% NM 34.92%EV -4.45% E -1.62% K -2.54% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 38.41%EV -4.08% E -1.63% K -2.72% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 26.67%EV -3.21% E -0.892% K -1.23% G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04% NM 35.07%EV -6.18% E -2.29% K -3.64% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.88%EV -4.08% E -1.63% K -2.72% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 27.05%EV -5.90% E -1.69% K -2.36% G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 02:59
FanDuel2.70I 37.04% NM 34.80%EV -6.18% E -2.29% K -3.64% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 38.35%EV -6.00% E -2.45% K -4.14% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.85%EV -5.90% E -1.69% K -2.36% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 14:39
1xBet2.70I 37.04% NM 34.53%EV -6.18% E -2.29% K -3.64% G +0.000%2.42I 41.32% NM 38.52%EV -7.15% E -2.95% K -5.04% G +0.000%3.46I 28.90% NM 26.95%EV -6.97% E -2.02% K -2.84% G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-30 13:09
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02% NM 35.12%EV -8.62% E -3.28% K -5.29% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.49%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.39%EV -5.90% E -1.69% K -2.36% G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-26 14:29
SportsBet2.62I 38.17% NM 35.21%EV -8.96% E -3.42% K -5.53% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.44%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.36%EV -5.90% E -1.69% K -2.36% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17% NM 35.21%EV -8.96% E -3.42% K -5.53% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.44%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.36%EV -5.90% E -1.69% K -2.36% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-26 11:48
LeoVegas2.60I 38.46% NM 35.25%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.19%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 26.56%EV -7.24% E -2.10% K -2.96% G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-02 10:20
BetRivers2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet2.60I 38.46% NM 34.69%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.38%EV -9.84% E -4.19% K -7.29% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.93%EV -9.93% E -2.96% K -4.23% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 08:39
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46% NM 34.27%EV -9.66% E -3.71% K -6.04% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 38.74%EV -11.75% E -5.11% K -9.04% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.00%EV -11.28% E -3.42% K -4.90% G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-27 15:10
William Hill2.50I 40.00% NM 36.01%EV -13.13% E -5.25% K -8.76% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.51%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.48%EV -8.59% E -2.53% K -3.58% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 14:00
888sport2.50I 40.00% NM 36.01%EV -13.13% E -5.25% K -8.76% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.51%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.48%EV -8.59% E -2.53% K -3.58% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00% NM 36.01%EV -13.13% E -5.25% K -8.76% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.51%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.48%EV -8.59% E -2.53% K -3.58% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00% NM 36.01%EV -13.13% E -5.25% K -8.76% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.51%EV -7.92% E -3.30% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.48%EV -8.59% E -2.53% K -3.58% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerFleetwood Town (Local)Chesterfield FC (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39