Language:English
Chelsea v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chelsea (Local)
Prediction 85.72%1.17fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -24.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.46%85.48%85.66%87.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.091.091.1396.15%91.67%91.74%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 4.82%20.74fair odd
EV +20.52%
Edge +0.821%
Kelly +0.855%
Growth +0.175%
assuming max odds 25.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.86%4.95%4.86%6.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.5019.0519.0025.007.41%5.25%5.26%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 9.46%10.57fair odd
EV +8.79%
Edge +0.764%
Kelly +0.837%
Growth +0.074%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.23%9.57%9.47%11.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.8510.0011.5012.50%10.15%10.00%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 85.72%; Luton (Visit): 4.82%; Draw: 9.46%. For Luton (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.74. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 25.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.75%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.86%EV +20.52%E +0.821%K +0.855%G +0.175% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.39%EV +8.79%E +0.764%K +0.837%G +0.074% | 3.6% | 2026-08-27 18:21 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.75%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.86%EV +20.52%E +0.821%K +0.855%G +0.175% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.39%EV +8.79%E +0.764%K +0.837%G +0.074% | 3.6% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.35%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV +10.87%E +0.473%K +0.494%G +0.054% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -14.86%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-27 18:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.65%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV +10.87%E +0.473%K +0.494%G +0.054% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV +8.79%E +0.764%K +0.837%G +0.074% | 5.6% | 2026-08-27 18:23 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.65%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV +10.87%E +0.473%K +0.494%G +0.054% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV +8.79%E +0.764%K +0.837%G +0.074% | 5.6% | 2026-08-27 18:22 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.69%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 22.33I 4.48%NM 4.27%EV +7.64%E +0.342%K +0.358%G +0.027% | 10.55I 9.48%NM 9.04%EV -0.198%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.68%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.37%EV +6.05%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.95%EV +1.69%E +0.158%K +0.174%G +0.003% | 3.9% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.52%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.33%EV +6.05%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017% | 10.40I 9.62%NM 9.15%EV -1.62%E -0.155%K -0.172%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.52%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.33%EV +6.05%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017% | 10.40I 9.62%NM 9.15%EV -1.62%E -0.155%K -0.172%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.33%EV -6.57%E -6.02%K -72.95%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV +6.05%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -24.32%E -3.04%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.33%EV -6.57%E -6.02%K -72.95%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV +6.05%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -24.32%E -3.04%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-27 18:21 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.03%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.51%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.57%E -6.02%K -72.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.72%EV -6.57%E -6.02%K -72.95%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +1.23%E +0.059%K +0.062%G +0.001% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.29%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.63%EV -3.59%E -0.179%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.29%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.63%EV -3.59%E -0.179%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.66%EV -9.14%E -8.62%K -152.29%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.59%EV -3.59%E -0.179%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-27 18:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.62%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV -8.41%E -0.443%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -14.86%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-27 18:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.32%EV -6.57%E -6.02%K -72.95%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV -8.41%E -0.443%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.29%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.41%E -0.443%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.32%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.29%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.07%EV -13.23%E -0.735%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-27 18:21 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.67%EV -10.85%E -10.43%K -271.29%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 4.95%EV -13.23%E -0.735%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.38%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-27 18:21 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.67%EV -10.85%E -10.43%K -271.29%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 4.95%EV -13.23%E -0.735%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.38%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.67%EV -10.85%E -10.43%K -271.29%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 4.95%EV -13.23%E -0.735%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.38%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.01%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-27 17:56 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.11%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 9.98I 10.02%NM 9.38%EV -5.59%E -0.560%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -14.86%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -19.59%E -2.30%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-27 17:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -19.59%E -2.30%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-27 17:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.10%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -19.59%E -2.30%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-27 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.74%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -19.59%E -2.30%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.16%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.43%EV -7.77%E -0.796%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.21%EV -10.85%E -10.43%K -271.29%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.21%EV -18.05%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.58%EV -12.50%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.87%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -22.87%E -1.43%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -0.671%E -0.064%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.60%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -22.87%E -1.43%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -14.86%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.84%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.09%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -22.87%E -1.43%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.13%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.34%EV -27.69%E -1.85%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.29%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV -27.69%E -1.85%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.57%EV -7.42%E -6.87%K -92.79%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.30%EV -30.10%E -2.08%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -5.40%E -0.540%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.29%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.51%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-27 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -3.99%E -3.57%K -33.29%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.51%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -10.13%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-27 18:21 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.46%EV -8.28%E -7.74%K -118.29%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.62%EV -34.92%E -2.59%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -14.86%E -1.65%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.35% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.33% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.35% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.33% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.35% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.33% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.35% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.33% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-27 18:25 |