The School of Odds

Bristol City v Walsall

2026-08-06 18:45 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Bristol City (Local)

Prediction 66.95%1.49fair odd
EV -6.27%
Edge -4.48%
Kelly -15.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.57%67.18%67.11%71.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.271.331.351.4079%75%74%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Walsall (Visit)

Prediction 13.57%7.37fair odd
EV +1.75%
Edge +0.233%
Kelly +0.269%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.06%13.55%13.32%15.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.007.147.507.5017%14%13%13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.48%5.13fair odd
EV +5.20%
Edge +0.963%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.74%19.26%19.57%20.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.404.964.805.4023%20%21%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Casumo1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:04
TABtouch1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:04
Unibet1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:04
Grosvenor1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
PMU (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
BetRivers1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
Unibet (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
Virgin Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
LiveScore Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
Svenska Spel1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:04
betPARX1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:04
ATG (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -14.97%E -11.79%K -55.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV +5.20%E +0.963%K +1.18%G +0.062%10.6%2026-07-20 20:05
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.35%EV -8.28%E -6.04%K -22.37%G +0.000%7.47I 13.39%NM 12.54%EV +1.34%E +0.180%K +0.207%G +0.003%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV -4.54%E -0.926%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 23:15
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 66.29%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.17%E -2.06%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.21%EV -5.90%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-20 23:15
SportsBet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.61%E -5.51%K -20.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-20 19:40
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -8.28%E -6.04%K -22.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-20 19:40
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 66.13%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.58%EV -13.85%E -2.18%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 23:15
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 66.13%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.58%EV -13.85%E -2.18%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 23:15
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 66.68%EV -7.61%E -5.51%K -20.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -11.82%E -1.82%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-20 23:15
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -18.60%E -3.10%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-20 23:15
Bovada1.34I 74.63%NM 68.00%EV -10.29%E -7.68%K -30.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -6.49%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-20 23:13
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.46%E -1.57%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-20 19:40
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -7.46%E -1.57%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 19:40
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV +1.75%E +0.233%K +0.269%G +0.005%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -7.46%E -1.57%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 19:40
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.38%EV -8.28%E -6.04%K -22.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.46%E -1.57%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-20 23:15
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -10.38%E -2.26%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-20 23:15
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.38%E -2.26%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-20 23:14
betano_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.38%E -2.26%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-20 20:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -10.95%E -8.24%K -33.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -10.38%E -2.26%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-20 19:40
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.33%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 23:15
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.33%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 23:15
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -5.03%E -0.719%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.33%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 23:15
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.95%E -8.24%K -33.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -11.82%E -1.82%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.33%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-20 23:15
NetBet (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 66.48%EV -14.30%E -11.17%K -51.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.18%EV -18.60%E -3.10%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.34%EV -14.28%E -3.25%K -4.20%G +0.000%17.5%2026-07-20 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.34%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.08%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%7.6%2026-07-20 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.34%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.08%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%7.6%2026-07-20 23:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 40.96%6.60I 15.15%NM 8.56%1.12I 89.29%NM 50.47%76.9%2026-07-20 23:15