L’École des cotes

Watford v Derby County

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-21 15:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Watford (Local)

Prévision 46.23%2.16cote équitable
EV -2.92%
Avantage -1.39%
Kelly -2.65%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.96%46.22%46.16%47.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.802.022.042.1055.56%49.56%49.14%47.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Derby County (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.10%3.83cote équitable
EV -0.815%
Avantage -0.214%
Kelly -0.291%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.77%26.11%26.18%27.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.153.563.553.8031.75%28.11%28.17%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.67%3.61cote équitable
EV -1.50%
Avantage -0.422%
Kelly -0.587%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.56

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.64%27.68%27.66%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.383.403.5633.33%29.63%29.41%28.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.10I 47.62%NM 46.13%EV -2.92%E -1.39%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -3.42%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 14:50
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -2.92%E -1.39%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 14:55
Pinnacle2.08I 48.08%NM 46.49%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.28%EV -3.95%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -1.78%E -0.501%K -0.698%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 14:05
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 14:05
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 46.24%EV -4.76%E -2.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -3.42%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 08:50
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -2.12%E -0.565%K -0.771%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 14:33
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.22%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -4.55%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 14:35
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 14:45
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 14:45
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:40
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:39
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 13:55
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -3.42%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
TAB2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:35
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 14:35
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 14:35
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 14:42
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 14:35
Unibet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:24
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Unibet (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Unibet (NL)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Betsson2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.15%E -3.03%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -1.50%E -0.422%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:35
NordicBet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.15%E -3.03%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -1.50%E -0.422%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:35
GTbets2.03I 49.26%NM 46.49%EV -6.15%E -3.03%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.00%EV -5.25%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.51%EV -5.10%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:50
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.42%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.21%EV -0.815%E -0.214%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-21 14:45
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.42%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.21%EV -0.815%E -0.214%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-21 14:45
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:05
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:05
Bet Right2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 14:35
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.15%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -6.48%E -1.92%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 14:35
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 14:35
BetUS2.01I 49.75%NM 45.80%EV -7.08%E -3.52%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 14:55
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:40
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 14:34
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 14:05
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 14:34
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:40
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:30
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:30
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:30
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -8.46%E -4.27%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -0.815%E -0.214%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 08:49
Virgin Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -8.93%E -4.53%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:05
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -8.93%E -4.53%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:05
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.85%E -5.05%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 14:11
Fliff1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.85%E -5.05%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 14:45
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.15%EV -10.31%E -5.32%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -12.56%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-21 08:49
Betclic (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%EV -11.24%E -5.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.70%EV -10.91%E -3.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-21 14:33
Parions Sport (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.37%EV -11.24%E -5.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-21 14:35
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.20%EV -12.62%E -6.68%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.35%EV -8.12%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-21 14:49
NetBet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.52%EV -13.09%E -6.96%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.76%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-21 14:55
PMU (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 46.05%EV -16.78%E -9.32%K -20.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.32%EV -17.78%E -5.64%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.63%EV -17.00%E -5.67%K -8.50%G +0.000%20.6%2026-02-21 14:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%1.6%2026-02-21 14:45