La escuela de los momios

Watford v Derby County

Inicio: 2026-02-21 15:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Watford (Local)

Predicción 46.23%2.16momio equitativo
EV -2.92%
Ventaja -1.39%
Kelly -2.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.96%46.22%46.16%47.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.802.022.042.1055.56%49.56%49.14%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Derby County (Visitante)

Predicción 26.10%3.83momio equitativo
EV -0.815%
Ventaja -0.214%
Kelly -0.291%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.77%26.11%26.18%27.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.153.563.553.8031.75%28.11%28.17%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.67%3.61momio equitativo
EV -1.50%
Ventaja -0.422%
Kelly -0.587%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.64%27.68%27.66%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.383.403.5633.33%29.63%29.41%28.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.10I 47.62%NM 46.13%EV -2.92%E -1.39%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -3.42%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 14:50
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -2.92%E -1.39%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 14:55
Pinnacle2.08I 48.08%NM 46.49%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.28%EV -3.95%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -1.78%E -0.501%K -0.698%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 14:05
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 14:05
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -3.84%E -1.85%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 46.24%EV -4.76%E -2.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -3.42%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 08:50
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -2.12%E -0.565%K -0.771%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 14:33
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.22%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -4.55%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 14:35
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 14:45
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 14:45
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:40
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:39
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 13:55
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -3.42%E -0.926%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
TAB2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:35
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 14:35
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 14:35
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 14:42
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.23%E -2.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 14:35
Unibet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:24
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Unibet (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Unibet (NL)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.69%E -2.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:05
Betsson2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.15%E -3.03%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -1.50%E -0.422%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:35
NordicBet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.15%E -3.03%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -1.50%E -0.422%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:35
GTbets2.03I 49.26%NM 46.49%EV -6.15%E -3.03%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.00%EV -5.25%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.51%EV -5.10%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:50
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.42%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.21%EV -0.815%E -0.214%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-21 14:45
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.42%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.21%EV -0.815%E -0.214%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-21 14:45
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:05
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:05
Bet Right2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -4.73%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 14:35
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.15%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -6.48%E -1.92%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 14:35
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 14:35
BetUS2.01I 49.75%NM 45.80%EV -7.08%E -3.52%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 14:55
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:40
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.04%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 14:34
LeoVegas2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 14:05
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 14:34
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:40
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:30
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:30
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.54%E -3.77%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 14:30
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -8.46%E -4.27%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -0.815%E -0.214%K -0.291%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 08:49
Virgin Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -8.93%E -4.53%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:05
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.66%EV -8.93%E -4.53%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 14:05
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.85%E -5.05%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.65%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 14:11
Fliff1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.85%E -5.05%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 14:45
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 46.15%EV -10.31%E -5.32%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -12.56%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -8.70%E -2.64%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-21 08:49
Betclic (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%EV -11.24%E -5.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.70%EV -10.91%E -3.39%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-21 14:33
Parions Sport (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.37%EV -11.24%E -5.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.95%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-21 14:35
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.20%EV -12.62%E -6.68%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.35%EV -8.12%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-21 14:49
NetBet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.52%EV -13.09%E -6.96%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -11.26%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.76%EV -12.85%E -4.08%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-21 14:55
PMU (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 46.05%EV -16.78%E -9.32%K -20.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.32%EV -17.78%E -5.64%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.63%EV -17.00%E -5.67%K -8.50%G +0.000%20.6%2026-02-21 14:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 46.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.67%0.4%2026-02-21 14:45
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%1.6%2026-02-21 14:45