The School of Odds
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Derby County v Cardiff City

2026-08-22 14:00 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derby County (Local)

Prediction 55.54%1.80fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -5.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%55.51%55.50%57.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.681.7364.10%59.73%59.52%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cardiff City (Visit)

Prediction 19.33%5.17fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.274%
Kelly -0.341%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.15%19.29%19.36%21.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.764.795.1025.00%20.99%20.86%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV +0.524%
Edge +0.131%
Kelly +0.175%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%25.20%25.14%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.683.724.0028.99%27.15%26.88%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Derby County (Local): 55.54%; Cardiff City (Visit): 19.33%; Draw: 25.13%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.524%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -7.26%E -4.34%K -10.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +0.524%E +0.131%K +0.175%G +0.001%4.9%2026-08-15 11:18
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -3.25%E -0.843%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 11:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.77%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.46%EV -5.27%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -3.25%E -0.843%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 12:04
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.80%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -4.50%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 11:40
SportsBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -6.70%E -3.99%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.50%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 11:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.24%EV -6.70%E -3.99%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.50%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 11:19
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.24%EV -6.70%E -3.99%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.50%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 11:19
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.49%EV -10.59%E -6.58%K -17.36%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -1.40%E -0.274%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -4.50%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:19
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.18%EV -5.03%E -2.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 11:40
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 11:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 12:00
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -7.26%E -4.34%K -10.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.33%E -0.667%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 11:19
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.26%E -4.34%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 11:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.25%EV -8.92%E -5.44%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 11:59
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.14%E -3.64%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.55%EV -7.39%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.04%EV -6.01%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.84%EV -7.26%E -4.34%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.23%EV -6.23%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -6.01%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 13:24
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.02%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.02%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 11:39
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -10.03%E -6.19%K -16.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.02%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 11:20
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -8.37%E -5.07%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -8.27%E -2.27%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:59
Betsson🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.64%EV -3.92%E -2.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.25%EV -5.07%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.11%EV -9.03%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 11:34
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.64%EV -3.92%E -2.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.25%EV -5.07%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.11%EV -9.03%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 11:35
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.26%E -4.34%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.53%E -2.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 12:04
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -8.37%E -5.07%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.53%E -2.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:43
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -8.37%E -5.07%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -7.20%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.53%E -2.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 12:43
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -6.70%E -3.99%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -13.00%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -10.78%E -3.04%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 11:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.19%EV -11.70%E -7.36%K -19.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.86%EV -11.29%E -3.20%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-15 11:59
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.04%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:14
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.04%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:12
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.04%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -5.59%E -3.29%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -8.17%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.04%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 12:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.80%EV -11.14%E -6.96%K -18.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.15%EV -15.90%E -3.66%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -12.04%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-15 12:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.28%EV -13.36%E -8.57%K -23.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.17%EV -22.67%E -5.67%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.55%EV -13.30%E -3.85%K -5.43%G +0.000%18.1%2026-08-15 11:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 53.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.43%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.61%16.6%2026-08-15 12:05
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 43.47%2.44I 40.98%NM 30.11%2.78I 35.97%NM 26.42%36.1%2026-08-15 13:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-15 12:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-15 12:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-15 12:00

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