Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.34
assuming max odds 2.30
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derby County (Local): 29.72%; Birmingham City (Visit): 42.25%; Draw: 28.03%. For Derby County (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.34, with an expected value of -0.726%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.35%EV -0.726%E -0.217%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 01:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.35%EV -0.726%E -0.217%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 01:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.59%EV -5.37%E -2.40%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-07 11:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 13:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-09 10:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 10:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.63%EV -5.48%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -5.79%E -2.60%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -2.84%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-09 17:06 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 10:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 11:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%EV -5.79%E -2.60%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.23%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -6.67%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.64%E -3.00%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-07 16:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -2.84%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 11:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-07 16:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 00:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 15:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 15:43 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-09 13:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 06:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-07 16:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-07 16:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-07 16:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 11:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.06%EV -10.44%E -4.92%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 28.22%EV -11.42%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-08 11:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.41%EV -11.43%E -3.83%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.76%EV -13.40%E -6.54%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-06 13:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.90%EV -15.29%E -5.36%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.61%EV -15.51%E -7.75%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.49%EV -13.10%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.20% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.46% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.02% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28% | 12.2% | 2026-09-09 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75% | 15.1% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75% | 15.1% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75% | 15.1% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 29.96% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 40.90% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.14% | 17.5% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |