Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Derby County v Birmingham City

Inizio: 2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Finale: Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

56 bookmaker (16 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Derby County (Casa)

Previsione 29.72%3.36quota equa
EV -0.726%
Vantaggio -0.217%
Kelly -0.310%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.34

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
28.35%29.79%29.71%30.81%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
2.853.133.103.3435.09%31.94%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Birmingham City (Trasferta)

Previsione 42.25%2.37quota equa
EV -2.84%
Vantaggio -1.23%
Kelly -2.18%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.30

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
41.00%42.22%42.20%43.98%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
2.002.192.202.3050.00%45.58%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 28.03%3.57quota equa
EV -1.89%
Vantaggio -0.540%
Kelly -0.756%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
26.88%27.99%28.09%28.73%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
3.103.313.333.5032.26%30.20%29.99%28.57%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Derby County (Casa): 29.72%; Birmingham City (Trasferta): 42.25%; Pareggio: 28.03%. Per Derby County (Casa), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 3.36. Nessun bookmaker idoneo offriva una quota di chiusura superiore a tale livello: la migliore era 3.34, con un valore atteso del -0.726%; non produceva valore atteso positivo.

Quote dei bookmaker (56 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaPareggioMargineAggiornamento
Betsson🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.35%EV -0.726%E -0.217%K -0.310%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 01:55
NordicBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.35%EV -0.726%E -0.217%K -0.310%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 01:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 13:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.59%EV -5.37%E -2.40%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 13:15
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 13:15
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 11:35
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Bally Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 10:59
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 10:54
GTbets🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.63%EV -5.48%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -5.79%E -2.60%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:20
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -2.84%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 17:06
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 10:59
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 11:00
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%EV -5.79%E -2.60%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.23%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 17:35
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -6.67%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.64%E -3.00%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:35
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 16:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -2.84%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.756%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 11:30
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 16:59
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 00:59
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:45
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:43
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:05
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:10
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 18:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 13:15
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 06:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:55
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:49
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:50
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:15
ReBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.06%EV -10.44%E -4.92%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 28.22%EV -11.42%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 11:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 29.41%EV -11.43%E -3.83%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.76%EV -13.40%E -6.54%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 13:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.90%EV -15.29%E -5.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.61%EV -15.51%E -7.75%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.49%EV -13.10%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-06 13:15
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 29.20%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.46%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%6.0%2026-09-09 17:30
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.02%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%12.2%2026-09-09 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75%15.1%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75%15.1%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75%15.1%2026-09-09 16:46
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 29.96%2.08I 48.08%NM 40.90%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.14%17.5%2026-09-09 17:40