StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Derby County v Birmingham City

Matchstart: 2026-09-12 11:30 UTC

Slutresultat: Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

56 spelbolag (16 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Derby County (Hemma)

Prognos 29.72%3.36rättvist odds
EV -0.726%
Fördel -0.217%
Kelly -0.310%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.34

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
28.35%29.79%29.71%30.81%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.853.133.103.3435.09%31.94%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham City (Borta)

Prognos 42.25%2.37rättvist odds
EV -2.84%
Fördel -1.23%
Kelly -2.18%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.30

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
41.00%42.22%42.20%43.98%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.002.192.202.3050.00%45.58%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 28.03%3.57rättvist odds
EV -1.89%
Fördel -0.540%
Kelly -0.756%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.50

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
26.88%27.99%28.09%28.73%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
3.103.313.333.5032.26%30.20%29.99%28.57%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Derby County (Hemma): 29.72%; Birmingham City (Borta): 42.25%; Oavgjort: 28.03%. För Derby County (Hemma) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 3.36. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 3.34, med väntevärdet -0.726%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (56 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaOavgjortMarginalUppdaterat
Betsson🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.35%EV -0.726%E -0.217%K -0.310%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 01:55
NordicBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.35%EV -0.726%E -0.217%K -0.310%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 01:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV -1.91%E -0.580%K -0.833%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.35%EV -3.68%E -1.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-09 13:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.59%EV -5.37%E -2.40%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 13:15
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 13:15
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 11:35
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Bally Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 13:15
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 10:59
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 10:54
GTbets🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.63%EV -5.48%E -1.72%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -5.79%E -2.60%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:20
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -2.84%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 17:06
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 10:59
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.09%E -1.82%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 11:00
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%EV -5.79%E -2.60%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.23%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 17:35
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -6.67%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.64%E -3.00%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.93%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:35
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.95%E -2.20%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 16:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -2.84%E -1.23%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -1.89%E -0.540%K -0.756%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 11:30
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 16:59
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 00:59
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:45
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:43
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:05
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 14:10
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 18:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 13:15
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -8.33%E -3.84%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.30%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.17%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 13:15
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 06:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:55
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:49
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:50
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.06%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:15
ReBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.06%EV -10.44%E -4.92%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 28.22%EV -11.42%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 11:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 29.41%EV -11.43%E -3.83%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.76%EV -13.40%E -6.54%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -11.70%E -3.71%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 13:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.90%EV -15.29%E -5.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.61%EV -15.51%E -7.75%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.49%EV -13.10%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-06 13:15
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (6)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 29.20%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.46%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%6.0%2026-09-09 17:30
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.02%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%12.2%2026-09-09 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75%15.1%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75%15.1%2026-09-09 16:46
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.77%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.75%15.1%2026-09-09 16:46
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 29.96%2.08I 48.08%NM 40.90%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.14%17.5%2026-09-09 17:40