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Santos v UCV FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Santos (Local)
Prediction 78.28%1.28fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -8.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%78.19%78.28%79.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.201.201.2587.72%83.51%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
UCV FC (Visit)
Prediction 7.09%14.10fair odd
EV +2.86%
Edge +0.197%
Kelly +0.212%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 14.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.38%7.13%7.17%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.2912.5014.5011.11%8.14%8.00%6.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.62%6.84fair odd
EV +3.10%
Edge +0.440%
Kelly +0.513%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 7.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.53%14.67%14.55%17.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.146.107.0518.52%16.28%16.39%14.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos (Local): 78.28%; UCV FC (Visit): 7.09%; Draw: 14.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.18%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -18.42%E -1.60%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.05I 14.18%NM 13.53%EV +3.10%E +0.440%K +0.513%G +0.016% | 4.8% | 2026-07-29 00:18 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.91%EV -5.28%E -4.36%K -25.14%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -29.06%E -2.91%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -1.29%E -0.191%K -0.224%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.07%EV -7.63%E -6.46%K -42.37%G +0.000% | 13.73I 7.28%NM 6.80%EV -2.60%E -0.190%K -0.205%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.14%EV -3.48%E -0.527%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.94%E -0.760%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 00:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.02%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.688%E -0.049%K -0.053%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.94%E -0.760%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-29 00:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV -11.33%E -0.906%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -4.94%E -0.760%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-29 00:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -6.41%E -1.00%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-29 00:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.87%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 13.25I 7.55%NM 7.17%EV -6.01%E -0.453%K -0.491%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.96%EV -7.14%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 22:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.15%EV -2.15%E -1.72%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.42%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -8.60%E -1.38%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.30%EV -8.41%E -7.19%K -49.47%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -8.60%E -1.38%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-29 00:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -11.33%E -0.906%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -10.79%E -1.77%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -11.33%E -0.906%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -10.79%E -1.77%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -11.33%E -0.906%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -10.79%E -1.77%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -11.33%E -0.906%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.41%EV -10.79%E -1.77%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-29 00:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.86%EV -9.98%E -8.67%K -66.50%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.68%EV -10.79%E -1.77%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-29 00:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 00:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -7.78%E -0.599%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -4.50%E -3.69%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -29.06%E -2.91%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -36.16%E -4.02%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-28 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -10.76%E -9.44%K -76.85%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -12.25%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.82%EV -7.63%E -6.46%K -42.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -15.18%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-29 00:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.82%EV -7.63%E -6.46%K -42.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -15.18%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.82%EV -7.63%E -6.46%K -42.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -15.18%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.82%EV -7.63%E -6.46%K -42.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -14.88%E -1.24%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -15.18%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-29 00:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.05%EV -8.41%E -7.19%K -49.47%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.47%EV -25.52%E -2.43%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -15.91%E -2.77%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.48%EV -5.28%E -4.36%K -25.14%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.38%EV +2.86%E +0.197%K +0.212%G +0.006% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -21.03%E -3.89%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.45% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.70% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.85% | 0.2% | 2026-07-29 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.31% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.86% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.83% | 0.4% | 2026-07-29 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.17% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.02% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81% | 0.6% | 2026-07-29 00:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.44% | 17.01I 5.88%NM 5.82% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74% | 1.1% | 2026-07-29 00:25 |
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