Language:English
Macará v Alianza Atlético
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Macará (Local)
Prediction 69.65%1.44fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -4.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%69.30%69.55%71.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.4178.13%75.27%75.19%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alianza Atlético (Visit)
Prediction 9.92%10.08fair odd
EV +2.99%
Edge +0.288%
Kelly +0.319%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 10.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.09%9.91%9.96%12.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.229.5010.3813.33%10.85%10.53%9.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.43%4.90fair odd
EV +4.17%
Edge +0.818%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.01%20.79%20.49%22.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.564.605.1025.00%21.93%21.74%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Macará (Local): 69.65%; Alianza Atlético (Visit): 9.92%; Draw: 20.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.29%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.70%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.01%EV +4.17%E +0.818%K +1.02%G +0.042% | 3.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.62%EV -6.67%E -4.98%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-21 22:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.43%EV -6.67%E -4.98%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.38I 9.63%NM 9.09%EV +2.99%E +0.288%K +0.319%G +0.010% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.47%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 01:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.50%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.47%EV -1.79%E -1.27%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.19I 12.21%NM 11.62%EV -18.74%E -2.29%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -7.06%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -10.15%E -7.87%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -8.08%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -8.08%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.73%EV -7.36%E -5.54%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.03%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -25.58%E -3.41%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.37%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.62%E -2.58%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-22 01:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.33%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -14.21%E -3.38%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 01:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.68%EV -4.58%E -3.34%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 9.97%EV -7.72%E -0.830%K -0.930%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -15.23%E -3.67%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.61% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91% | 0.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.00% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.00% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.00% | 2.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |