La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Macará v Alianza Atlético
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Macará (Local)
Predicción 69.65%1.44momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -1.27%
Kelly -4.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.41
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.67%69.30%69.55%71.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.281.331.331.4178.13%75.27%75.19%70.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Alianza Atlético (Visitante)
Predicción 9.92%10.08momio equitativo
EV +2.99%
Ventaja +0.288%
Kelly +0.319%
Crecimiento +0.010%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.09%9.91%9.96%12.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.509.229.5010.3813.33%10.85%10.53%9.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 20.43%4.90momio equitativo
EV +4.17%
Ventaja +0.818%
Kelly +1.02%
Crecimiento +0.042%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.01%20.79%20.49%22.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.564.605.1025.00%21.93%21.74%19.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (27 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.29%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.70%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.01%EV +4.17%E +0.818%K +1.02%G +0.042% | 3.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Casumo | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -8.06%E -6.11%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV +0.086%E +0.018%K +0.022%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coolbet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.62%EV -6.67%E -4.98%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -0.776%E -0.078%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-21 22:19 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.21%EV -10.85%E -8.47%K -38.73%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -2.98%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.43%EV -6.67%E -4.98%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.38I 9.63%NM 9.09%EV +2.99%E +0.288%K +0.319%G +0.010% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.47%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 01:30 |
| DraftKings | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.50%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Bovada | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| SportsBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -6.04%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| 1xBet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.47%EV -1.79%E -1.27%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.19I 12.21%NM 11.62%EV -18.74%E -2.29%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -7.06%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -10.15%E -7.87%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -8.08%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -8.08%E -1.80%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| betfred_uk | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.73%EV -7.36%E -5.54%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -10.70%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coral | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.03%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -25.58%E -3.41%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.37%EV -9.45%E -7.27%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.62%E -2.58%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -11.56%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-22 01:20 |
| William Hill | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.33%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.74%E -0.604%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -14.21%E -3.38%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 01:09 |
| NordicBet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.68%EV -4.58%E -3.34%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 9.97%EV -7.72%E -0.830%K -0.930%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -15.23%E -3.67%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -15.66%E -1.84%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -18.30%E -4.57%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.61% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91% | 0.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.00% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.00% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.00% | 2.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |